迷霧四國的經濟、環境、潔淨與非潔淨能源之關聯性分析

Abstract

本論文探討新興國家迷霧四國（墨西哥、印尼、南韓與土耳其）於1990年至2012年的經濟、環境、潔淨（再生)與非潔淨（石化燃料)能源之間的關聯性。追蹤型資料共整合檢定結果顯示，實質國內生產毛額（real gross domestic product, GDP）、再生能源發電、石化燃料發電、實質固定資本形成毛額和總勞動力之間存在長期均衡關係；再生能源發電、實質GDP、二氧化碳（carbon dioxide, CO2）排放和實質石油價格之間存在長期均衡關係。追蹤型資料因果檢定結果顯示：(1) 實質GDP、再生能源發電和石化燃料發電 / 碳排放之間存有長期的雙向因果關係；(2) 石化燃料發電對再生能源發電 / 再生能源發電對實質GDP存有正面短期的單向因果關係；(3) 再生能源發電對碳排放存有負面短期的單向因果關係；(4) 實質GDP和碳排放之間存有短期的雙向因果關係，且實質GDP正面影響碳排放的成長率而碳排放負面影響實質GDP的成長率。本論文結論指出，迷霧四國是為能源依賴經濟體，採取能源節約政策可能會傷害經濟發展，不過為了抑制環境汙染而推動再生能源計劃，將有機會能夠使迷霧四國成為能源獨立經濟體。特別的是，迷霧四國的非潔淨能源會助長潔淨能源。此外，發展再生能源發電設施是解決能源供應安全和氣候變遷問題的可行方法，並且創造潔淨與非潔淨能源成為能源結構裡的夥伴關係，可以建立永續能源經濟體。

This thesis explores the linkage relationship between economy, environment, clean (renewable) and non-clean (fossil fuel) energy in emerging economies of the MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) countries over the period 1990-2012. The panel co-integration tests reveal that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among real gross domestic product (GDP), renewable electricity generation, fossil fuel electricity generation, real gross fixed capital formation, and total labor force; among renewable electricity generation, real GDP, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and real oil prices. The panel causality tests reveal that (1) there are bidirectional long-run causalities among real GDP, renewable electricity generation, and fossil fuel electricity generation / CO2 emissions; (2) there are positive unidirectional short-run causalities from fossil fuel electricity generation to renewable electricity generation / from renewable electricity generation to real GDP; (3) there is a negative unidirectional short-run causality from renewable electricity generation to CO2 emissions; (4) there is a bidirectional short-run causality between real GDP and CO2 emissions that real GDP positively impacts on the growth rate of CO2 emissions while CO2 emissions negatively impacts on the growth rate of real GDP. These results suggest that MIST countries should be energy-dependent economies, energy conservation policies may depress their economic development, but the expansion of renewable energy projects is driven by environmental pollution and may be able to create an opportunity to move MIST to be an energy-independent economy. In particular, a contribute relation from non-clean energy to clean energy exists in the MIST Countries. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy generation facilities is a viable solution for addressing energy supply security and climate change issues, and creating clean and non-clean energy partnerships in the energy structure could build a sustainable energy economy.