台灣DRAM產業上下游經營分析

Abstract

本研究擬分析台灣DRAM上下游三個子產業，這三個子產業包括 DRAM晶圓製造、DRAM封裝、DRAM模組製造。根據台灣三個子產業代表性公司的10年財報分析(2004-2013)，本研究發現：以股本而論，DRAM晶圓製造公司的股本約為DRAM封裝公司的18倍，約為DRAM模組製造公司的50倍。然而，以10年平均的ROE（股東權益報酬率）而論，DRAM模組製造公司的ROE是16%，DRAM封裝公司的ROE是7%，DRAM晶圓製造公司的ROE是-313%。上述的兩個發現可稱為「 DRAM上瘦下肥」現象，這個現象似乎跟直覺相反，因為大公司（DRAM晶圓製造）賠錢，小公司（DRAM模組製造）反而賺錢。為了解釋這個與直覺似乎相反的現象，我們從供給與需求兩個面向來分析此問題。需求面向目的是解釋為何DRAM價格會暴漲暴跌，供給面向包括四個因素：(1) 產能擴充所需前置時間，(2) 技術壽命週期，(3) 產能的資本密集度，(4) 產能調整產品組合的困難度。綜合供需兩面向的分析，本研究可合理解釋DRAM產業為何會上瘦下肥。

This research attempts to analyze the three upstream and downstream sectors (sub-industries) of DRAM industry in Taiwan. The three sectors involve the manufacturing of DRAM wafers, the packaging of DRAM, and the module assembly of DRAM. By comparing 10-year financial statements (2004-2013) of some representative DRAM companies in Taiwan, we have the following findings. In terms of average capital per company, a DRAM wafer manufacturer is about 18 times of a DRAM packaging manufacturer, and about 50 times of a DRAM module assembly company. However, in the ROE (return of equity), a module assembly company is about 16%, a packaging company is about 7%, and a wafer manufacturing company is about -313%. These findings are contrary to intuition because they indicate that large-scale companies (DRAM wafer manufactures) perform worse than small-scale companies (DRAM module assembly manufactures). To reveal the rationale of these counter-intuitive findings, we analyze the three DRAM sectors from the demand side and from the supply side. The demand side addresses why the price of DRAM is highly volatile. The supply side considers the following four perspectives: (1) lead time to increase capacity, (2) life cycle of technology, (3) capital scale of capacity, and (4) product mix flexibility of capacity. The proposed demand side and supply side analyses substantially explain the rationale of the aforementioned counter-intuitive findings.