台灣高科技產業商品期貨市場可行性分析-以DRAM、晶圓代工、TFT-LCD面板為例

Abstract

摘 要 隨著台灣經濟的成長、轉型與發展，我國科技產業逐漸由下游PC、NB組裝業朝上游半導體、TFT-LCD等電子元件發展，發展至今我國之DRAM、晶圓代工、TFT-LCD產業已達世界地位。目前行政院積極推動「兩兆雙星核心優勢產業」 ，其中的兩兆產業，係指半導體產業及影像顯示器產業，預期台灣五年後的發展願景，不僅成為全球第一大TFT-LCD(薄膜液晶顯示器)供應國、全球第三大半導體供應國，兩產業分別將創造產值逾新台幣一兆元。 另一方面，在政府持續推動的金融自由化腳步之下，台灣的資本市場、期貨交易市場發展亦逐漸跟上國際水準，由於資本市場的發達，使得台灣企業擁有相當強的籌資能力，對於需要不斷投資的資本密集產業如半導體、TFT-LCD等產業發展有相當大的優勢。另外在期貨市場方面，目前主要以股票指數期貨及選擇權等金融期貨為主，但隨者台灣期貨交易所之商品種類、成交量及法人參與比重逐漸成長，商品開發能力與交易資訊平台逐漸成熟，已具備推出具台灣產業特色之商品期貨開發能力，提供相關企業及投資人避險工具。 本研究針對三種佔台灣高科技產業舉足輕重地位之電子元件：DRAM、晶圓代工、TFT-LCD之期貨交易 之可行性進行分析，研究目的在於提供產業及金融界做為期貨市場建立之參考。 本研究根據分析比較DRAM、晶圓代工、TFT-LCD是否具備成為期貨標的物特性，得到以下結論： (1) 研究結果顯示DRAM在標準化、交易量、價格波動不確定性、廠商避險意願及期貨可有效降低現行避險工具風險上，具備期貨標的物可行性特。 (2) TFT-LCD雖然在面板規格標準化可行，但標準化規格推動尚未完全成熟，不過在交易量、價格波動不確定性、廠商避險意願及期貨可有效降低現行避險工具風險上，具成為期貨標的物之特質。 (3) 晶圓代工產能，目前尚未有標準化規格，雖然理論上以產能為交易商品可以標準化，但由於目前實際交易上供需雙方強調長期關係配合，無公開市場報價，且價格波動不確定性與廠商避險意願並不顯著，尚不具備成為期貨標的物之特性。

Abstract With the growth, transformation and development of Taiwan’s economy, the technology industry has gradually moved from the downstream section of PC, NB assembly to the upstream section of semiconductor and TFT-LCD. Nowadays Taiwan’s DRAM and TFT-LCD manufacturers have establish their international recognitions. Now the Executive Yuan of Taiwan is aggressively pushing the so-called “Core Competitive Industries”, among them are the semiconductor and TFT-LCD industry. Taiwan is expected not only to become the leading supplier of TFT-LCD, but also the 3rd largest semiconductor manufacturer in five years, which will contribute more than NT$ 1 trillion value-added in each industry. Meanwhile, as the Taiwan government’s constant effort on financial deregulation, Taiwan’s capital and future exchange market has caught up with its global peers. Due to the prosperity of capital market, Taiwan’s tech firms can raise fund easily. For those capital-intensive industries such as semiconductor and TFT-LCD, it stands a great advantage. As for the future market, stocks index future and options account for a major part. But with the development of products, trade amount and involve of investment institutes, and the improvement of product design ability and information platform, some specific tools for hedging have emerged in Taiwan’s market. This research focused on the viability of the future exchange of three essential electronic products: DRAM, wafer fabrication and TFT-LCD, in order to provide references in building such an exchange market. The result of the research reveals that: 1. DRAM is an appropriate object for future exchange due to the following characteristics: standardization, trade amount, price fluctuation and company’s willingness to hedge. 2. TFT-LCD also reaches standardization in specs, but not yet in price. While in trade amount, price fluctuation and company’s willingness to hedge, it has the potential in becoming future trade object. 3. The capacity of wafer fabrication has not yet standardized, but in theory it can be as an exchange object. But both sides of the transaction emphasize in maintaining long-term relationships, there is no public quotation. And the price fluctuation and company’s willingness to hedge are not significant, it’s not yet to become and abject for future trade.