太陽能發電系統最適化配置—以台灣地區太陽能發電系統為例

Abstract

隨著各國經濟的發展，無論是民生或工業，電能已是現今不可或缺的能源，然而長期使用化石燃料產電會使得二氧化碳驟升，影響全球氣候甚劇，因此各國訂定京都議定書、坎昆協議等全球協議，進行全球性減碳，希望能在能源生產與環境保護間取得平衡。核能發電雖然發電成本低廉，卻有極大的安全疑慮，惟廢核後極需發展替代能源，考慮台灣位於副熱帶氣候之地理環境，具安全及潔淨性之太陽光能發電即為目前最適合台灣發展的無汙染之天然資源。本研究之主要目的是根據台灣不同太陽輻射量之區域，利用逐步迴歸法（Stepwise Regression）針對各區域實際太陽能發電量資料建立太陽光能發電量預測模型，再以數學規劃法求出使太陽能發電量極大化之配置，用以作為能源機構或廠商建立太陽能發電系統之參考。

With the development for people's livelihood and industry of national economy, electricity becomes an indispensable energy. However, long-term use of fossil fuel to produce electricity will increase make carbon dioxide which affects the global climate dramatically. Consequently, many countries signed the global agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Cancun Accord, to achieve the goal of global carbon reduction and strike a balance between energy production and environmental protection. Although the cost of electricity generated by nuclear power is low, there is a great security concern. It is necessary to develop renewable energy to reduce the nuclear electricity. Considering Taiwan's subtropical climate, Safe and clean Solar energy is currently the most suitable way for developing the electricity. In the past, due to technical and geographical constraints, solar energy data are often generated by simulation in the laboratory and lack of the actual power generation data. In this study, we use the stepwise regression analysis to establish a forecasting model for the electricity generated by the solar power using the actual solar power generation data. Then the mathematical programming method to is employed to maximize make the solar power generation system. The result can be utilized as a reference for the energy institutions or manufacturers to establish their solar power system.