特斯拉電動車新產品上市對台灣汽車產業股價之影響

Abstract

全球氣候變遷，二氧化碳等溫室氣體排放問題日益嚴重，能源枯竭、環境保護持續喚起人們重視，因此電動車開始成為眾所矚目的焦點。其中最廣為人知的電動車廠，非美國特斯拉(Tesla Motors)莫屬，2017年4月市值一舉超越美國傳統汽車大廠通用汽車(General Motors)與福特汽車(Ford Motors)，成為全美市值最高的汽車製造商，最關鍵的因子在於2016年3月底推出的最新平價車款Model 3。新產品發表後預接訂單高達50萬張，如此驚人數字，市場也質疑特斯拉產能是否能搭配並準時交貨。 本研究以事件研究法為主軸，探討特斯拉最新平價車款Model 3上市，對於台灣汽車產業之影響。分別從三個關鍵事件：新產品發表，首批交車以及2017年第三季財報發佈所曝光的產能不足問題，是否影響台灣特斯拉供應鏈與傳統汽車工業類股股價分析之。因此，本研究目的為： 1.當特斯拉發表新產品Model 3時，對台灣特斯拉供應鏈與傳統汽車工業類股是否會產生異常報酬。 2.當特斯拉新產品首批交車時，對台灣特斯拉供應鏈與傳統汽車工業類股是否會產生異常報酬。 3.當特斯拉產能不足，無法有效消化訂單時，對台灣特斯拉供應鏈與傳統汽車工業類股是否會產生異常報酬。 實證結果發現，當特斯拉Model 3上市當日與首批交車，特斯拉供應鏈存在正向異常報酬，而傳統汽車工業股存在負向異常報酬。而後特斯拉產能不足，無法有效消化訂單，使得特斯拉供應鏈存在負向異常報酬，而對傳統汽車工業股影響並不顯著。

This study investigates the impact a new product (Tesla Model 3) made on the automotive industry in Taiwan. The impact will be estimated and assessed through analysis of the stock prices changes in three critical events: the new product launch, the delivery of first batch, and the issue of insufficient production capacity from the financial statements of third quarter, 2017. The scope of this study encompasses two categories of automotive stocks, one is Tesla supply chain in Taiwan, and the other is automobile firms in Taiwan. Therefore, the purpose of this study is as follows. 1. We explore whether the launch of new product causes any abnormal returns or market reactions on Tesla supply chain and on automobile firms in Taiwan. 2. We explore whether the delivery of first batch causes any abnormal returns or market reactions on Tesla supply chain and on automobile firms in Taiwan. 3. We explore whether the issue of insufficient production capacity causes any abnormal returns or market reactions on Tesla supply chain and on automobile firms in Taiwan. Empirical results show that the new product launch and the delivery of first batch will cause significant positive abnormal returns on Tesla supply chain, but significant negative abnormal returns on automobile firms. On the other hand, the issue of insufficient production capacity will make significant negative abnormal returns on Tesla supply chain, but insignificant abnormal returns on automobile firms.