線上德爾菲系統於技術前瞻之研究

Abstract

自19世紀以來，為因應技術快速成長及全球化的種種變動與挑戰，各國紛紛開始嘗試運用一套系統性的方法，長期性的調查未來科學、技術、經濟與社會環境變化的情況，藉以尋找可能獲得經濟、社會與環境利益極大化之研究基礎領域與新興科技。而科技前瞻活動所產生的成效也在此時漸漸受到各國重視，並廣為不同國家、區域或組織所用以為政策規劃之工具，輔助重要決策的進行，期望提早辨認並發展未來能將社會利益極大化之新興技術領域。 因此本研究進行「線上德爾菲系統於技術前瞻之研究」，規劃出藉由網際網路科技施行德爾菲法於技術前瞻調查之整體架構及方式。利用系統雛型法，規劃網路德爾菲系統之相關架構及平台，並運用Web 2.0及開放原始碼之概念及軟體，建置「前瞻問卷系統」為網路問卷系統、「前瞻維基平台」為背景資料庫提供平台、「前瞻部落格」為專家意見交換平台。對進行科技前瞻活動的專家進行問卷之發放、回收與統計，並提供議題背景資料及意見交換平台。 藉由蒐集專家過去的使用情況、對本研究建置之問卷系統的操作心得，及對未來以網際網路科技應用德爾菲法於技術前瞻之期許，透過使用者的黑箱測試，驗證系統運作流程與使用者習慣的符合性。並結合Venkatesh(2003)等人所提出的「整合性科技接受模式」(Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology, UTAUT)及Steward(1987)所提出的軟體品質15要素設計使用者問卷，建置於本研究所開發之「線上德爾菲系統」，邀請德爾菲法之專家參與問卷之填答，以進行資料之分析與蒐集。評估以網際網路為媒介進行德爾菲法的研究過程中，專家對網站操作上可能產生的疑慮與問題，進而提出適合未來實際以網際網路為媒介，進行科技前瞻德爾菲調查法時，網站所應具備之功能架構與執行流程建議。 研究結果發現，科技整合接受模式的調查中，有97%的專家使用者認同本研究之網際網路德爾菲運作平台，並認為其介面使用非常友善，未來也願意持續使用本研究之運作平台進行技術前瞻之議題。軟體品質要素對於傳統德爾菲及網路德爾菲的差異調查中也發現，大部分使用者對於網路德爾菲最大的疑慮來自對於資訊安全的不信任。

Since the 19th century, in order to deal with the changes and challenges of rapid growing technology and globalization, various countries try to apply a systemic method to perform a long-term investigation on the future science, technology, economy and social environment, to maximize their benefits on foundations and new developing technologies. The results from Technology Foresight is gradually notice by various countries, and they plan to carry out an important policy with the aid of Technology Foresight, expecting to identify the developments can maximize their social benefits in the future. Therefore, this research on “On-line Delphi System for Technology Foresight” is an investigation on integrated structure of internet technology application to technology foresight. We utilize the prototype approach to design the structure of on-line Delphi system, by applying the concept of Web 2.0 and Open source software, we establish “On-Line Delphi” to be a questionnaire system, “Foresight Wiki” as database to provide users background information, and “BLOG” to be the platform where users can exchange their opinions. So this system can send out, retrieve and statistical calculation of questionnaire, also providing background information and opinion exchange platform for users. By collecting the user experiences, the operation impression of the “On-Line Delphi System” and the expectation on Delphi application with internet technique for technology foresight, we utilize the “Black Box Testing” to verify the compliance on system operation and user’s customary applications. Furthermore, we apply the “UTAUT (Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology)” presented by Venkatesh (2003) and “Software Quality” presented by Steward(1987) to design the questionnaires and establish on the “On-Line Delphi System”, we also invite the Delphi method experts to interact with “On-Line Delphi System” by collecting and analyzing these data, we evaluate the possible qualms and operation problems on this Delphi system, to propose more effective functional structures and procedure for Delphi investigation in technology foresight. The research result discovered that 97% of experts agree with “on-line Delphi system” for technology foresight, the user interface is very friendly, and also willing to use the system for future technical perspective. The difference survey on software quality to traditional Delphi method and on-line Delphi method discovered that most user concern is “on-line Delphi system” will accrue information insecurity.