台電公司風力發電之成本分析

Abstract

風力發電因為具有潔淨、低溫室氣體排放及自產能源的特性，在高油價與減少二氧化碳排放聲浪中，逐漸成為再生能源的重要選項。台灣西岸地區與澎湖離島風能蘊藏豐富，風力發電更成為我國再生能源發展的重點推展項目。與傳統石化燃料發電方式比較，普遍認為風力發電存在著環境條件限制、供應不穩定及成本偏高之問題。本研究針對風力發電之成本，依據台電公司現有風力發電計畫建置及運轉情形，採用敏感度分析與情境分析，研究影響風力發電成本的重要因素，並探討在無政策補貼時，在各種不同情境下的成本變動，並將結果與汽力機發電成本比較，探討在財務上兩者能否有競爭的可能性。接著採用損益兩平點分析，計算以每度2元收購風力發電電力時，風力發電投資損益兩平的生產條件。最後比較歐洲與台電公司風力發電成本，探討其差異成因，希望藉此提供未來風力發電計畫投資決策與政策制定參考。 本研究主要發現如下： 一、影響風力發電成本主要因素為初始投資成本與年度發電量，影響初始投資成本的主要因素為風力機組價格，年度發電量則與廠址環境風能條件以及風力機組的可用率相關。 二、利用情境分析風力發電成本變動並與台電公司2006年汽力機發電成本比較，發現隨著石化燃料成本上漲，在合適的風力發電年平均容量因數條件下，風力發電成本已能與燃油及天然氣發電成本競爭，但若與燃煤發電成本比較，現階段之風力發電成本仍無法與燃煤發電競爭。 三、在以每度2元收購國內再生能源電力的條件下，風力電廠年平均發電量需在容量因數31.9%以上才有投資的價值。若以此條件檢視國內設廠條件，由於離島平均風力發電容量因數較高，台灣本島陸上符合條件之風場比較有限，故離島風力發電比台灣本島更具有開發的經濟效益。 四、在年發電量相同的條件下，台電公司風力發電成本高於歐洲，分析原因在於台電公司風力發電初始投資成本中，尚包括機組進口運費、關稅及代理貿易商等額外成本支出。另因運轉與維護技術經驗不足，及現有風力電廠裝置容量未達到經濟規模，導致故障修復時間延長，也使得運轉與維護成本升高。

Wind power is a clean, low CO2-emitting, and renewable energy. The west coast of Taiwan and Penghu Islands have great potentials for developing wind energy. However, comparing to the traditional fossil fuels, wind energy is often considered as a technology which is environment-constrained, of inconsistent supply, and with higher cost. The purpose of this study is to analyze the wind power cost based on the construction and operating data of the Taipower wind projects. Key factors of the wind power cost are found by the sensitivity analysis. The wind power cost variation is also studied by the scenario analysis. The break-even point of the net annual energy production is found when the wind power is purchased with 2 TWD/kWh. The wind power cost of Taipower and EU are also compared. Our major empirical findings are as follows: (1) The cost of wind power is significantly affected by the initial capital cost and net annual energy production. The key element of the initial capital cost is the wind turbine price. The major elements of net annual energy production are the availability of the wind turbine and the local wind farm atlas. (2) When the wind power cost is compared to the 2006 Taipower’s fossil fuel power cost, it matches the gas and oil when the annual capacity factor is on a certain level; however, it is still more expensive than the coal. (3) The wind farm should financially break even if the annual capacity factor reaches 31.9% when the wind power price is 2 TWD/kWh. Locations of wind farms fitting these conditions are very limited in Taiwan. The offshore islands near Taiwan have better conditions for wind energy. (4) The wind power cost of Taipower is more expensive than EU due to the wind turbines were produced outside Taiwan. The initial capital cost also includes the transportation fees, import tax, and agency costs. Moreover, the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of Taipower are still high due to the lack of O&M expertise. The repairing time of the fault wind turbines is postponed because the total capacity of wind farms has not achieved the economic scale in Taiwan.