全球金融危機下政府干預行為對銀行績效成長趨勢之影響：亞洲經濟體之比較研究

Abstract

全球金融危機從2007年起開始快速傳播到世界各地，並影響到主要經濟體的銀行績效。許多國家的政府採用了各種干預政策，以恢復其本身金融體系。透過銀行績效的動態變化來檢驗政府干預前/後成長趨勢的差異。本研究採用分段潛伏趨勢模型。本研究使用的資料數據來自Bloomberg系統，收集五個亞洲主要經濟體包含日本、南韓、香港、新加坡和台灣地區的銀行。從2007年第四季到2010年第二季，共11期季資料來反映六個財務指標的償債能力、信用風險和獲利能力。全球金融危機下亞洲五個經濟體政府干預前/後的行為，銀行績效的變化趨勢已進行比較分析。我們的實證結果證明，平均而言，銀行績效在償債能力、信用風險和獲利能力方面在政府干預後的獲得改善。再者，政府干預行為對銀行績效的表現取決於所評估的財務指標、經濟體與銀行是否具國際化而有所影響。南韓和香港兩經濟體在政府干預後具有較強的銀行績效。南韓和香港所採用的有效性政策已被證明與討論。

The global financial crisis that started from 2007 onwards spread around the world and impacted the performance of banks in major economies. Many governments have used a variety of intervention policies to recover their financial systems. By examining the dynamic changes in bank performance before and after government intervention, this study demonstrates the use of the piecewise latent trajectory model. We used the data collected from Bloomberg for banks of five major Asian economies, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, over the eleven-quarter period from the 4th quarter of 2007 to the 2nd quarter of 2010 on six financial performance indicators reflecting solvency, credit risk and profitability. The change patterns of bank performance before/after government intervention during the global financial crisis have been compared among the five economies. Our empirical results indicate that, on average, the bank performance in terms of solvency, credit risk, and profitability improves after government intervention. Moreover, the influence of government intervention on bank performance depends on the evaluative financial indicator, the economy, and whether banks are internationalized. South Korea and Hong Kong have been identified to be the economies with stronger bank performance after government intervention. Policies demonstrated useful in South Korea and Hong Kong have been summarized and discussed.