捷運系統以OT方式推動之風險評量

Abstract

繼台北、高雄兩都會區捷運系統完成後，中小型城市亦陸續積極推動其捷運系統的發展。但是在當地政府人力、財務能力不足的狀況下，目前係以「中央政府負責規劃興建、營運交由地方政府負責」的方式推動。本研究在此背景下，探討捷運系統以OT方式推動過程中政府機構及營運業者個別將面臨的風險項目並進行評量，以做為政府與業者雙方制定合約時之參考。 透過文獻評析、系統整理及專家訪談等方法，本研究擬定出政府機構所感知之風險因子，分別為：OT業者技術能力與人力不足之風險、協商不成之風險、業者財務狀況不穩定之風險、OT業者不善盡營運責任之風險、天災或戰爭所造成之風險、法律新增或解釋之風險、政治與民意機構支持之風險等七項。營運業者所感知之風險因子分別有：運量高估之風險、工程設備品質不佳之風險、銀行融資與財務之風險、管制上之風險、政策配合之風險、營運成本之風險、天災或戰爭所造成之風險、以及法律解釋與認知之風險等八項。本研究採用德菲法對於學者、政府及業者群體代表分別進行風險評估。評估結果指出，列為重大風險類別的風險因子為：業者財務狀況不穩定之風險、運量高估之風險、以及銀行融資與財務之風險，其餘風險因子均為重要風險。

After the completion of rapid transit system construction in Taipei and Kaohsiung metropolis, Cities of the second and third tier also preomote the construction of their rapid transit system aggressively. In case of lacking enough professional and financal capability, our government adopts the OT model (design and build by central government, operate and maintain by local government.) to implement their constract in projects. This study aims at explorying the risk factors for government and operators in process of these projects implementation under these background and finding out the risk level by risk assessment for the reference in making contants between them. From paper reviewing, OT structure, and expert interview, several risk factors for government and operator are selected. Risk factors for government include: immature technology and labor forces risk in OT operator, negotiation broken risk, financal instability risk in OT operator, immature technology and labor for OT operator risk, negotiation broken risk, instable finance for OT operator risk, OT operator not on duty risk, force majeure risk, law enhancement and explanation risk, and politic and public opinion risk. Risk factors for OT operators include: risk for volume over-estimation, risk in construction and equipments quality, risk in loan and finance, risk in government regulation, risk in policy fittness, risk in cost control, force majeure risk, and risk for law enhancement and explanation. The level of these risks is that instable finance for OT operator risk, risk for volume over-estimation, and risk in loan and finance are significant risks. The others are material risks.