實質選擇權賽局與策略投資:筆記型電腦OEM/ODM 產業之應用

Abstract

本篇研究建構於 Smit 與 Trigeorgis (2004) 之模型架構上，於雙占市場及價格競爭產業基礎下，以實質選擇權賽局法分析全球筆記型電腦代工產業龍頭—廣達電腦投資新型觸控式螢幕之筆記型電腦專案之可行性與價值。分析過程中不僅將市場景氣變動因素納入考量，亦考慮廣達之競爭對手，包含仁寶電腦、緯創資通及英業達之反應與決策。根據本研究結果顯示，投資該專案為廣達最適之決策。當市場需求越大及市場不確定性越高時，廣達應加快投資速度，因為投資該專案所產生之價值也會越高。

This thesis follows the model of Smit and Trigeorgis (2004). Under the conditions of the price competition and the duopoly model, this thesis evaluates the feasibility and the value of the multi-touch panel laptop project for Quanta, the leader company of the laptop OEM/ODM industry, through the real options game methodology. This methodology not only considers the market uncertainty but deliberates Quanta’s competitors’ reactions including Compal Electronics, Inc., Wistron Corporation, and Inventec Corporation. The result demonstrates that investing in the project is the optimal decision for Quanta. Due to the high value of the real options of the project, Quanta should make this investment promptly when the market demand and market uncertainty are high.