完整后设资料纪录
DC 栏位 | 值 | 语言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | 施证展 | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | 陈穆臻 | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, Mu-Chen | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-12-12T01:35:44Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2014-12-12T01:35:44Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079671510 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11536/43870 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 海运市场近似完全竞争市场而受市场的供给及需求影响甚大,又海运运输需求为衍生性需求,主要由国际贸易货物需求量引申而来,因此全球或区域性的经济发展及国际贸易需求量将对海运需求量,甚而对海运运价产生直接的影响。然而,海运价格的不确定性大大地增加了相关业者的营运风险,因此,若能瞭解、掌握运价之影响因素与未来趋势,将能对海运业者的经营决策提供重要的参考资讯,有效降低其营运的风险。 本研究主要即在探讨定期海运运费影响因素与预测。首先,我们就分析影响海运运费之因素作一叙述性的探讨,随后,针对船舶与货运供需因素对运费之影响作为出发点,以近年来海运市场供需状况及亚洲与北欧区域国家经济发展为基础,探讨上述因素对于区段间定期海运运费的影响情形进行实证分析。研究分为两阶段动态时间序列模型,第一阶段探讨各国经济变化对于货运需求的影响;第二阶段探讨舱位利用率对于运费收入的影响并分为东、西向作讨论。实证结果发现,西向之工业国组织成员国及亚洲国家GDP变化对运输需求量呈现显着影响,且西向的利用率及历史运费对运费收入呈现显着影响。因此建议货柜航商可依区间国家的经济变化作为运量及运费趋势预测的指标,以降低经营风险。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | The shipping market was seriously impacted by demand and supply. Demand of shipping market was extended from international trade. Consequently, global economic development or regional economic development and international trade affect shipping both market demand and ocean freight directly. However the uncertainty of ocean freight seriously risked business management. However, shipping industry nowadays still faces relatively high risks, coming mainly from the volatile freight rates. As such, knowing and grasping the influencing factors and effectively forecast the volatility of freight rates will greatly enhance the profitability of the market participants. This study explores in depth on factors and prediction on container freight rates. Descriptive discussions about the influencing factor of freight rates in shipping market. Afterwards, based on the factor of supply – demand relationships, we use the market supply – demand date and the economical development of Far East and North Europe countries for parameter to investigate and analyzes quantitatively the interactions among regional freight rates and those parameters contributing to the volatility of freight rates. This study will establish two step dynamic time series model. First step is interaction for regional economical development and cargo demand. Second step is interaction for vessel utilization and freight revenue. Two steps cover west and east bound. The empirical results show that for west bound, cargo demand is significantly affected by the variation of GDP for major advanced economies and Asian countries. And freight revenue is significantly affected by utilization and history freight revenue. To knock down management risk, we suggest taking these parameters for index to predict the trend of cargo demand and freight revenue. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | zh_TW | en_US |
dc.subject | 货柜航运 | zh_TW |
dc.subject | 运价 | zh_TW |
dc.subject | 时间序列 | zh_TW |
dc.subject | liner shipping | en_US |
dc.subject | freight rate | en_US |
dc.subject | time series model | en_US |
dc.title | 货柜航运运费影响因素与预测之研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | A Study on Factors and Prediction on Container Freight Rates | en_US |
dc.type | Thesis | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | 管理学院运输物流学程 | zh_TW |
显示于类别: | Thesis |