纖維素生質能產業分析

Abstract

本研究運用產業組合分析模式，透過技術成長曲線與產業價值鏈，區隔纖維素生質能產業之定位發展。在研究方法上採取文獻分析、專家訪談、專家問卷調查，佐以無母數統計方法以進行小樣本專家問卷之推論。 研究結果顯示，目前纖維素生質能產業定位如下，在技術成長曲線的部分，目前是處於「萌芽期」的階段，未來逐漸往「萌芽期」與「成長期」發展；在產業價值鏈的部分，目前處於「研發」的階段，而未來策略的發展方向則是定位在「生產」的部分。 根據產業創新需求要素與政策目標，並配合研究之統計分析，歸納出台灣若要發展纖維素生質能產業之具體推動策略，在研究發展方面，可加強「國家基礎研究能力」、「國家整體對創新的支持」和「政府對產業政策的訂定」。在研究環境方面，可藉由「技術引進與擴散機制」和「政府對產業創新的支持」。在市場資訊上，應加強「產業標準及資訊的取得」。在市場環境方面，需著重於「國家基礎建設」。在人力資源方面，應重視「研究團隊整合能力」和「專門領域的研究人員」。而在財務資源上，應確保「研究經費」是否充足。將資源集中於產業正確的方向，如此才能與全球的大型企業競爭，台灣未來的走向能否由代工的思維轉型成產品的供給者，牽涉到創新需求要素的支援，倘若可以完備的提供各項輔助，纖維素生質能產業將是台灣可以努力發展的一新興產業。

This thesis reports on developing a strategic assessment of the cellulosic base biofuels industry, using a portfolio model to assess competitive and strategic requirements. The portfolio model entails a two-dimensional analysis, containing technology life cycle (vertical axis) and the industrial value chain (horizontal). Three research methods used for data collection are literature review, expert interview, and general survey. While industrial portfolio results reveal the strategic positions and future direction of industrial development, this research also systemizes the industrial innovation requirements and corresponding policy instruments for future strategic developments. Not only does it provide a clear understanding of policy direction, it also suggests the strategic resource allocation of the industry. Evaluating the Industrial Innovation Requirements and Policy Tools leads to a conclusion that the most critical categories of policy instruments are “Nation fundamental research capability”, “Support of innovation from the all Nation”, “The Government’s policies for industry”, “Mechanism for technology transferring and introducing”, “Government policies in support of industrial innovation”, “Industrial standards and information acquirement”, “Infrastructure development”, “Integration capability of research teams”, “Special area researchers”, “Research budget”. The corresponding policy instruments in support of developing IIRs are provided in the conclusion of this thesis.