太陽能產業的競爭力分析 - 以F公司為例

Abstract

「高油價」、「石油戰爭」及「全球暖化」的潛藏危機，促使世界各國積極投入尋找可低成本化且低汙染的替代性能源，人類已知的再生能源包括水力、風力、太陽能、地熱、生質能等，其中以太陽能最受矚目。 近年來，世界各國仿效德國「再生能源法」的精神，經由政府主導，透過法規制定、補助獎勵、優惠電價回購、租稅減免等措施，積極推動太陽能產業的成長，已見成效。全球太陽能產值及電池模組裝置量在2011年已達到930億美元及27.7GWp，相較於2008年的產值及裝置量為387億美元及6.2GWp，已分別大幅成長140%及350%。 過去5年太陽能產業年複合成長率都超過30％，吸引了許多新的競爭者加入，太陽能電池產業正由導入期進入成長期，由於全球產能擴充過快，而主要市場歐美大國的債務危機引發降低太陽裝置及發電補貼，使得需求成長不如預期，導致供過於求，2011年產業整體供應鏈價格低迷，多數太陽能電池及模組廠商面臨虧損、停產、減產、關廠、倒閉或被併購的慘況，然而危機也是轉機。本研究以全球太陽能電池領導廠商為個案，就其近幾年豐碩的營運成果及低成本領先績效，以SWOT分析及Philip Kolter構面評估準則為訪談內容的基礎，經由個案公司高階經理人的訪談及百分比分析法，來透視個案公司的競爭力。 本研究分析發現之綜合結論為「未來10年內太陽能平價上網廣泛實現」，「太陽能電池模組的需求強勁」，「對於擁有技術差異化、轉換效率高、低成本領先者」，未來將有高獲利與營收高成長的黃金10年，透過低成本併購企業、增加產能、擴大市占率。在SWOT分析中發現個案公司的競爭優勢包括「行銷及生產部門卓越的表現創造一流的品牌」、「低成本領先的製造技術」、「優良的財務環境」、「具競爭力的產品與穩定的工廠配合」，雖然有薄膜產品每瓦售價低於矽晶、在關鍵稀有原物料取得成本及能力協商空間小、可靠度較難像矽晶電池一樣使客戶容易接受等等缺點，並未阻止個案公司造就高質量、低成本與高獲利的營運成果。 本研究建議個案公司之應採行之競爭策略發展包括「持續投入研發，提升轉換效率，掌握關鍵新技術」、 「降低製造成本，早日實現太陽能廣泛平價上網」「掌握系統建置計畫開發，提供安裝戶完整解決方案，擴張事業版圖」， 在未來黃金10年把握需求強勁的爆發性成長，加速轉換效率的提升，產能的擴大，配合系統建置計畫的合作，做為電池模組的出海口，個案公司應該可以克服眼前競爭激烈與市場供過於求的威脅，繼續成功地在太陽能產業保持領先的地位。

"High oil prices”, “the war for oil" and "global warming" hidden crisis are prompting most countries to look for alternative energy with low cost and low-pollution. The renewable energy includes hydro, wind, solar , geothermal, biomass, etc., among which solar energy is more attractive. In recent years, the spirit of the German Renewable Energy Law was followed by most countries offering subsidies and rebate with solar industry. The revenue and installation of the global PV market has reached US$ 93B and 27.7GWp with significant growth of 140% and 350% in 2011, compared to 2008, respectively, Compound annual growth rate of the solar PV industry is more than 30 percent in the past five years, which attracted many new competitors to enter the market. Now, the global PV cell/module is severe oversupply. Most solar cell/module plants face loss, shutdown, plant closings and the plight of the collapse or mergers. However, the crisis is a turning point. The world's leading manufacturer of solar cells was taken as a case study through SWOT analysis and Philip Kolter dimensions evaluation criteria to analyze the competitiveness of company F. The general conclusions including “solar grid parity widely realized next 10 years”, "the strong demand for solar cell/module”, “with technical differences, the high conversion efficiency and low cost leader to maintain future 10 golden years” were found. SWOT analysis shows the competitive advantages of company F including “the excellent performance of the marketing and production departments to create first class brand "," low cost leading manufacturing technology "," excellent financial management”, “competitive products and stable factory”. Disadvantages include “film product price per watt lower than silicon”, “rare and raw materials of critical cost with limit room for negotiation”, “reliability more difficult to be accepted by customers like as silicon cell”. This study suggests that the company F can adopt competitive strategy development including “continued investment in R&D, improve conversion efficiency, master key new technology”, “reduce manufacturing costs to realize grid parity”, "offer a complete solution with system implementation for the expansion of the business territory ",”as a system developer with module conversion efficiency enhancement”. The company F will be able to overcome the threat front of a highly competitive/oversupply market and continue to maintain a leading position in the solar PV industry.