藍海還是紅海- 太陽能產業分析以德國為例

Abstract

太陽能產業是目前台灣發展綠能環保產業中重要的一環，也是台灣繼IC半導體產業後的另一俱開創性之主力產業。過去台灣在IC半導體產業的產值，佔世界相當的比重；而同樣具有大者恆大趨勢的太陽能產業，所需投入的人力與資源相對於IC半導體產業門檻較低，且大環境方面亦由於市場需求性與政策的逐一普及，因此吸引許多業者在這幾年大舉擴充。許多人認為，太陽能產業與過去DRAM 產業有異曲同工之市場效應存在，同樣都屬於商品標準化的產品，所以成功的關鍵因素，便落在於誰能掌握料源，拼產品成本的競爭優勢，市場經濟規模做大，方能取得競爭勝出的機會。因此在有限門檻而機會很大的太陽能電池產業，多數公司在早期是由中小型公司開始，隨著市場萌芽而競爭者逐漸增加，公司面對的是資源與速度的競爭。在市場開始以倍速擴充的成長期，公司能否利用過去的優勢順利轉型並擴充資源乃成為重要的發展關鍵。本研究主要目的在於發掘太陽能產業的成長動力。經由探討太陽能產業發展先進的德國發展歷程，對照分析台灣及各國的狀況，以及產業發展瓶頸，佐之以個案公司的發展歷程、策略及市場定位、競爭趨勢、及其所選取的成長模式，分析其決策過程與考量，以及預期的效益與潛在風險等問題，藉以提出太陽能產業發展策略之建議，期望能作為台灣太陽能產業發展的參考。

The Solar industry shall be one of the major contributor to Taiwan's future industry and also an important part of the development of green energy and environmental protection . In the past, Taiwan's semiconductor industry played an important role in the world with the economic scale formed by intensive capital investment. The scale would be also a key success factor for the solar industry, but with comparatively lower HR and resource threshold. The significant market growth pumped by government policy among many countries, has attracted many investors to delve into. Most believe the solar industry shall follow the similar market pattern of DRAM industry: securing the supply of material, lowering the cost, and competing with the economic scale. While many companies start from SME and grow up with the market, only those who can expand faster and adapt better to the market shall outperform others. The main purpose of this study is to explore solar industry's growth momentum by benchmarking the development of German solar industry in contrast with countries like Taiwan and others. Then the study continues analyzing the case company's development process, strategy, market position, competitiveness and the growth model selected, so as to reveal decision process, expected benefits, potential risks. Furthermore, a solar energy industry development strategy is proposed to be referenced by Taiwan's solar industry companies.