以社群網路分析研究社群口碑與股票投資之間的關係

Abstract

隨著網際網路的出現與發展，網路口碑已成為一項重要的行銷方法。近來許多研究結果顯示，很多消費者在進行購買決策時，會選擇參考網路口碑的資訊，並而影響購買行為與態度。但是，網路口碑與股票投資之間的關係，是否可也存在著類似重要的關聯性?究竟網路口碑是否會影響股票投資者的投資行為與態度?網路口碑是否會影響股價變動?這方面的議題很值得我們深入去探討與研究。期望透過Social Network的觀點，將其中間關係進一步釐清與驗證。 本研究選定高人氣的電子討論看板，透過Social Network分析的觀點，將網路口碑與投資態度視為網路結構與網路中的個體行為，同時透過實體問卷與網路問卷的方式，股票投資態度的動態變化，以分析兩者之間的相互關係。 研究結果顯示，股票投資討論板的成員彼此個互動密度不高，且少有雙向討論的社群。此外，由其內外度數的分布模式可知，有少數幾個資訊中心型的節點，每天在看板上進行大量回應，以及提供板友欲問的投資問題。投資態度在影響與選擇上都具有顯著效果，網路成員喜歡與股票投資態度相近的其他成員進行互動建立關係，也會受到其他網路成員態度相近者的影響而更堅定投資態度與信心。網路口碑對股價波動有一定的影響力，正面的網路口碑會對股價有正面的影響，而負面口碑也會造成股價負面的影響。

With the emergence and development of the Internet, online word-of-mouth has become a vital marketing approach. Numerous recent research outcomes have indicated that many consumers would choose to refer to the information from online word-of-mouth when proceeding with their purchasing decisions, which would further influence purchasing behaviors and attitudes. However, there may be a similar vital association for the relationship between online word-of-mouth and stocks. Will online word-of-mouth influence stock investors’ investment behaviors and attitudes? Will online word-of-mouth affect the fluctuations of stock prices? Such issues are worthy for us to probe and study more in depth. It is hoped that through the perspectives of Social Network analysis that these relationships can be further clarified and verified. This research selected the popular electronic discussion board and treated online word-of-mouth and investment attitudes as the individual behaviors within the Internet structure and network through the perspectives of Social Network analysis. At the same time, this research analyzes the mutual relationship between the two via physical and online questionnaires, together with the dynamic variation of stock investment attitudes. The outcome of this research indicates that the interaction between members on the stock investment discussion board is low and there are fewer two-way discussion social groups. Furthermore, from the distribution model of its inner and outer readings, it can be found that there are a few information center types of nodal points responding extensively and providing investment topics to be asked by the board members on the board every day. The investment attitude has an obvious effect on influence and selection, and online members prefer to interact and establish relationships with other members having similar stock investment attitudes. Online members will also be influenced by other online members who share similar attitudes, which results in a more resolute investment attitude and confidence. Online word-of-mouth has a certain degree of influence on the fluctuation of stock prices; positive online word-of-mouth will have a positive influence, while negative online word-of-mouth will also result in negative influences on stock prices.