台灣汽車零組件產業競爭優勢與發展趨勢預測

Abstract

綜觀台灣汽車產業發展歷程，由於受限於國內汽車市場規模太小、車款又多，再加上受制於國外技術母廠，台灣車廠的策略已逐漸由製造業轉型為製造服務業，朝多品牌代工，均攤產能，以及積極加入母廠國際分工體系並赴中國大陸投資設廠尋求機會。

本研究先對加入WTO、大陸磁吸、新興國家競爭威脅、全球化與模組化等內外在環境變動進行解析後，利用Porter的五力分析並輔以兩岸汽車零組件產業SWOT分析，來釐清台灣汽車零組件產業所處的競爭環境，找出產業中競爭的關鍵因素；另採Porter的鑽石模型分析來檢視產業競爭優勢形成的條件。最後再利用德菲法調查業界九位專家，尋求共識來預測到2013年時台灣汽車零組件產業的產值、外銷潛力產品類別與地區，以及未來產業發展方向，以提供業界與政府單位參考。

研究結果，五力分析顯示台灣汽車零組件產業，現存廠商間的競爭形成寡佔市場、競爭程度偏低，在購買者與供應商部份議價能力比較強，而替代品與新進入者的威脅則相對較低。鑽石模型分析則顯示，台灣汽車零組件產業無論在經驗、資金、體質、人才、管理、品質、技術、群聚效應、通路關係與政府政策輔導等具備多項有利條件，足以形成國家競爭優勢。因此對未來預測，經統計分析結果， 2013年台灣汽車零組件產業產值將達新台幣443,758百萬元，外銷成長最快速的地區為中國大陸，平均複合年成長率為31.83%，而外銷產品類別成長最大為電裝類，平均複合年成長率為11.00%。

Taking an overview on the development of Taiwan’s automobile components industry, we can find those firms in this industry have transferred their strategy from pure manufacture to manufacturing service because of the limitations such as small market size, various model of parts, and the royalty of the technological support from the cooperation company. Besides the manufacturing service, most of the firms in this industry also start the multi-brand OEM project to average the production cost, join into the global operation system and increasing the investment amount in Mainland China. In this research, we first analysis the violation of the internal and external circumstance including the factors such as WTO, magnet effect in Mainland China, emergency countries, globalization etc., then try to identify the competence of the automobile components industry by SWOT and the Five Forces Analysis. And we adopted the Diamond Model (Porter, 1990) to exam the formation conditions of this industry competence. Final step was to survey 9 experts in the industry by Delphi method to forecast the productivity, potential product, profitable area for exporting, and the development trend of this industry. The result of Five Forces Analysis indicated that the automobile component industry has became the oligopoly market; the strength is bargain power and the low threat of substitute product under this circumstance And through the diamond model analysis, the competence of experience, money, human resource, management, quality, technology, cluster effect, and government policy are power enough to form national competitive advantage. Thus we finally conclude that a) the total industry productivity will be get the target NT$443,758 million, b) the rapid speed of exporting growth area is Mainland China with the GAGR 31.83%, and c) the most potential category is electrical parts with the CAGR 11.00%.