專案/產品組合管理--以健康食品研發為例--

Abstract

『專案/產品組合管理架構』模式，結合了Sensitivity(敏感度分析)、Super Tree(決策樹)、Excel Spreadsheet(Excel 計算表)及DEA Solver(資料包絡分析法)等應用軟體做為分析工具，來解決目前企業在產品開發專案的選擇上所遇到的問題，如(1).無法掌握決策的範圍、(2).只有一種決策方案而無其他方案可供選擇、(3).透明度不足並缺乏資訊的佐證、(4).人云亦云，無正確的邏輯性、(5).依個人好惡決策並忽略風險的存在等等。而產品組合管理的目的就是期望以較少的時間、較少的成本，提供決策者一個好的產品組合結果，決策者可以藉由這個結果清楚的知道專案的執行順序，公司資源的分配情形，專案的風險值及專案預期的收益…等等進而提升決策的品質，達到降低投資風險，提高公司收益，增快研發速度的目標。 本研究是以ABC生技公司開發健康食品專案為例。專案用產品組合管理的架構來進行新產品開發與組合。研究方法的第一步驟是透過資料的收集與建模，來構建一個關聯圖做為團隊相互溝通的平台，進而用Excel計算表來計算整個專案的現金流量與NPV值。第二步驟是透過對專案的評估來了解各專案的價值與風險。第三步驟分類與組合是透過資料包絡分析法來篩選產品，並以專案的Score值愈接近效率前緣曲線1值的專案愈優先選取。第四步驟決策行動，決策者是依據前三個步驟所提供的分析資料來作產品組合與決策，最終目的就是要選對產品、做對產品與降低投資風險。

The project/product Portfolio management infrastructure pattern, has combined sensitivity (sensitivity analysis), Super Tree (decision making tree), Excel Spreadsheet, and DEA Solver, etc. using software as an analysis tool to solve the current enterprise problems in the product development project selection, if (1) the company is unable to grasp policy decision scope, (2) the company only has one policy-making plan without any other alternatives, (3) the transparency is insufficient and lacks any information, (4) the ideas are ancient and not logical, and (5) the decision was made according to individual preference and has neglected the risk, etc. But, the goal of product Portfolio management expects using less time and less costs to provide the policy-maker a good product portfolio result, and the policy-maker may use this result to clear know the project execution sequence, the company resources distribution, the project risk, and the project expected profit, etc. so that the policy-maker can reach to the goals of upgrade in decision quality, reducing the investment risk, higher company returns, and fast moving R&D. This study uses ABC Biomedical Inc., nutritional food project as an example. The project uses the Portfolio management infrastructure for new product R&D and portfolio. The first step in research technique is through information collection and model establishment to construct an influence diagram as the platform to link up the team, and then use Excel to calculate the project cash flow and the NPV value. The second step is through project evaluation to understand the project value and risk. The third step is classification and Portfolio through EDA Solver for product selection. A project score close to the efficiency curve value of 1 will be first selected. The fourth step is the decision-making and the decision maker will use the analytical data from the first three steps for product Portfolio and final decision. The ultimate goal is to select a right product, to produce a right product, and to reduce the investment risk.