運用情境分析法探討2030年數位生活—以可攜式多媒體播放器為例

Abstract

本研究乃使用SRI情境分析法探討未來數位生活變化之場景與數位科技產品之關聯及數位科技產業可能帶動數位經濟之趨勢，預測2030年數位生活的可攜式多媒體播放器之可能發展。 作者企圖從人類的生活活動、活動場合、活動時間等社會生活層面，並經由德菲法評估外部驅動源與驅動力的高不確定度與高影響度，發展出未來數位生活的情境不確定主軸為產品及技術的可獲得性、跨領域整合程度及擴散普及程度等三大項。由此三個不確定主軸組合出八種可能的未來情境。 研究顯示，在情境不確定主軸的樂觀及悲觀兩極化組合之情境描述中，可經由環境面的市場需求與產業供給，預測2030年數位生活可攜式多媒體播放器之發展，並於結論中分析在各種情境下的可攜式多媒體播放器產業的機會與威脅及經營策略。

The purpose of this study is to forecast the development of portable multimedia player in 2030 by using Stanford Research Institute Scenario Analysis.

This study brainstormed through social life dimensions of living activities, living areas and living time of human being and introduction of digital technology to picture the digital life settings. By means of scenario analysis, the expert panel explored the key decision factors which influence the development of future digital industries and the needs of human life. By means of the Delphi method, this panel evaluated the high uncertainty and high impact of the external driving forces and their origins. The panel concluded that the products/technologies availability, inter-field integrality and distributed popularization are three major factors of uncertain axis themes for the future digital life scenario. Each of factors consists of two dimensions, therefore eight scenarios were found.

This study showed that, in the combination of two opposite extremes--optimism and pessimism--the scenario presentation of scenario uncertain themes, it is feasible to forecast the function development of portable multimedia player of digital life in 2030 and analyze the opportunity, threat and operation strategy of the future portable multimedia player products under various scenarios by the market demands and industrial supply on the environmental side.