2030年數位生活情境分析-數位攝影裝置新興應用之研究

Abstract

處在科技高速蓬勃發展的今日，產業技術的進步速率與產品功能的提升速率，帶動著生活的急遽科技化與數位化，但在追求科技、技術、產品、產業發展之同時，須切記『科技始終來自於人性』，人類的需求與慾望，主導產品產業的發展方向。本研究跳脫既往通常由過去推測未來的技術預測方式，嘗試著由另一種角度切入探討，本研究由人們對生活內涵的需求與渴望為出發點，針對數位科技進入生活各場景，可能滿足人們對生活內涵需求渴望之模式，描繪2030年可能的數位生活情境，由消費購物、辦公環境、人際溝通、金融活動、交通、以及醫療看護等六大生活場景的探討，聚焦在數位攝影裝置在未來生活中可能的應用模式，以釐清數位攝影裝置未來可能的發展方向、產業與產品機會、以及邁向未來搶得先機所應考量的競爭優勢條件與相對策略。經由本研究以情境分析法的系統化分析演繹流程，對2030年數位生活情境發展，建立三大類的必然趨勢基本假設：第一大類相關於人們對生活內涵的需求慾望、第二大類主要考量生活數位化為一般大眾的可接受程度所作的基本趨勢假設、第三大類假設建立了對數位生活持續發展的動力，這三大類的基本趨勢假設，陳述著人們有需求、數位產品服務可被接受、以及環境與條件上都支持數位生活的發展。本研究經由情境分析法也歸納出影響未來數位生活發展狀態的三個不確定主軸：擴散普及推動強度、跨領域整合程度、產品/技術的可獲得性。在此三大不確定主軸的蓬勃樂觀發展狀態與保守發展狀態的配合之下，本研究探討四種不同可能的數位生活情境內容，將此數位生活情境內容對應到數位攝影裝置的應用模式，歸納出未來數位攝影裝置的多種應用趨勢，並歸納掌握未來數位攝影產品市場先機與優勢之關鍵技術方向。

In this thesis, several possible novel applications of digital camera devices are forecasted based on the predicted digital life in the year 2030. The digital life discussed here is concentrated in six scenes, including shopping activities, office work, human interactions, traffic, health care and monetary activities. In order to construct the possible future digital life, the scenario analysis method proposed by the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) is performed. Hence the key uncertainty factors, the macro drivers and the micro forces to influence the development of future digital life are figured out in this systematic process. Then three determined trends of digital life and three axes of uncertainty are identified. These three determined trends are the desire to raise life quality, the acceptance to enjoy digital life, and the continued impulsion to develop digital life. The three axes of uncertainty are the popularization strength, the inter-filed integrality and the availability of digital products and technologies. According to these results, several possible novel applications of digital camera devices are forecasted. The key technology trends to capitalize these opportunities are also identified. Finally some strategic suggestions for players in the digital camera industry are proposed in this thesis.