2030年數位生活情境分析探討數位家庭網路之人機介面發展

Abstract

人機介面的發展經歷了一段漫長的時間，輸入裝置的演進從鍵盤、滑鼠、觸控板、軌跡球、語音、手勢、眼球追蹤等運用期望發掘出最自然而方便的方式，輸出裝置的演變試圖從人的視覺、聽覺、觸覺、甚至腦波找到最能模擬真實狀況的技術。雖然如此，我們仍然必須承認，以人類對自己身體所擁有的有限介面的有限了解，人機介面要滿足無窮的生活慾望似乎仍有一大段路要走。 本研究以使用者需求與數位經濟拉力為基礎，探討2030年數位生活情境下，數位家庭網路人機介面的發展變化。藉SRI情境分析法的六大步驟，使用腦力激盪法聚焦數位生活的場景，以探討影響未來數位生活需求的重要關鍵決策因素，並以德爾菲法評估外部驅動源與驅動力的不確定度與影響度，歸納出未來數位生活情境的不確定主軸為產品/技術的可獲得性、跨領域整合程度與擴散普及強度等三大項。從這三項不確定軸所組成的不同情境中挑選出最樂觀、最悲觀、與最可能的情境，進而探討數位家庭網路人機介面的發展趨勢，提供不同情境下產業發展的機會、威脅和策略建議。

The human-machine interface has evolved over a long time. People look forward to using a natural and convenient input device by developing keyboard, mouse, touch panel, path ball, speech recognition, gesture recognition, eye tracing, etc. Moreover, we also attempt to find the technology of output device which imitates feeling from person's vision, sensing, touching, and brain wave. We need to know that it is very difficult to satisfy human’s discontented desire without real understanding of body’s a few apparatuses as interface to interact with machine. This research investigates the development of human-machine interface for digital home network based on user’s demand-force and economic-pull by using digital life scenario analysis in 2030. We try to brainstorm to picture the digital life under the six steps of SRI scenario forecasting. By SRI scenario analysis, we explore the key decision factors that influence the needs of future digital life. By means of the Delphi method, we evaluate the uncertainty and impact of external driving forces. We find that three uncertain axes for the future digital life scenario are products/technologies availability, inter-field integrality, and distributed popularization. We further choose most optimistically, most pessimistically, and most possibly scenario which are compose of the three uncertain axes. Finally we propose the trend of human-machine interface for digital home network, and provide the suggestion of opportunities, threats, and strategies under the chosen scenarios.