水資源系統供水可用度分析研究

Abstract

由於工商業的高度發展，各項標的對水資源的需求日益增加；水資源系統之目的即在滿足人類各項活動需用水，但由於水文不確定性的存在，欲規劃一完全不缺水之水資源系統將不切實際且不符經濟原則！故研定在某一容許的缺水條件下，系統所能提供之穩定出水量為規劃之首要課題〔1〕，惟其所含容許的缺水程度究竟為何？至今仍未有統一之標準〔1〕。 現有文獻中所建議之水資源效益評估方法流程，均過於簡化而不夠完備，其中也未提出適當的統計方法，致使工程人員在實際運用上常有盲點。故本研究之主要目的，在於藉由對缺水事件之統計分析，建構一套供水可用度判別程序，並以台灣南部高屏暨曾文流域水資源調配系統為實例，說明可用度之評估程序，並以之與現行之缺水指數（SI）做一比較，結果顯示：複合性可用度判別過程之評估程序相當完備。

The rapid growth on industrial and commercial development has greatly increased the demand for water. Through proper operation a water resources system achieve to satisfy various types of water demand. Due to the inherent hydrologic uncertainty and others, it is impossible and economically impractical to design a water resources project having a sufficient capacity for all demands. Therefore, to determine a reliable yield with an allowable shortage is a key issue for assessing in the performance of a water resources projects. Furthermore the issue on the tolerances for various projects, is contraversial and does not have an acceptable standard. Currently shortage index is a common technique used for the assessment. The purpose of this study is to present a procedure on the availability evaluation a water resources of system. This procedure emphasizes on the statistical analyses of failure data, and is applied to the Kao-Ping & Tseng-Un River Basin Management System as an example. A comparison with the commonly used SI index, has shown that the proposed method is superior.