策略性運輸規劃方法應用於都市道路交通之改善-以基隆市為例

Abstract

傳統的運輸規劃在未考慮運輸系統外部環境及內部條件的發展下，對未來的運輸發展提出單一的預測，道路交通策略也只能針對所預測的未來狀況而提出改善策略。然由於無法完成掌握未來的情勢，造成所產生的道路交通改善策略未必符合未來時代道路交通的需求。策略規劃(Strategic Planning)在企業界已發展多年，對於達成企業目標，已被公認具有相當的貢獻，且逐漸被廣泛採行。所以本研究引用策略規劃之觀念，配合情境分析(Scenarios Analysis)，嘗試建立運輸策略規劃(Transportation Strategic Planning)之分析架構，並應用在改善道路交通之策略。 本研究首先以情境分析來產生各種情境(Scenarios)，再以交叉衝擊分析法(Cross Impact Analysis)預測情境機率，並根據情境機率決定出關鍵情境。在策略產生的部分，首先分析系統的現況條件與未來趨勢，並以SWOT分析研擬適當之策略，再利用AIDA分析(Analysis of Interconnected Decision Areas)，將複雜的計畫問題從決策的觀點，以「結構化」的方式對每個關鍵情境中，產生不同策略方案，以運輸需求模式來預測各種策略方案未來道路交通狀況及影響。最後以較客觀的熵值權重法(Entropy Weight Method)進行策略方案評估，決定策略方案的優先順序。 以此分析架構，以基隆市為個案進行實例研究。根據研究系統之主要外部變數分析，決定以人口與港埠變數來建構情境，並依未來高中低不同程度的成長狀況，研擬出九種不同之情境，再以交叉衝擊分析法決定出四個關鍵情境。在不同的情境下，各策略方案的優先順序雖各有不同，但從結果中可發現，當未來的發展為低度成長或與現況差距並不大時，應採取保守的策略，選擇成本較低可立即改善道路交通的策略；而當未來的發展為中高度成長或與現況差距較大時，應針對目標提出積極的策略，以符合未來都市道路交通發展。

The traditional transportation planning did not consider the change of external and internal and made only one forecast for future transportation development. Since, it can not control the future situations, the strategies of improving road traffic condition will not meet the requirements of future transportation demands. Strategic Planning has been developed in industry for several years, it is generally acknowledged very helpful to achieve the objectives. This study uses the concepts of strategic planning and tries to develop a framework of Transportation Strategic Planning. This study first uses the Scenarios Analysis to make several scenarios and to forecast the probability of scenarios by Cross Impact Analysis, and then decides the key-scenarios through the probability of scenarios. Third, this study analyzes the present conditions and future trend of the system, and makes proper strategies by SWOT. After that, it structuralism the complicated problem to make different strategic alternatives for each key scenario by using AIDA, and then forecast the future traffic conditions for strategic alternatives. Finally, this study evaluate strategic alternatives by Entropy Weight Method to decide the priorities of strategic alternatives. For the case study of KeeLung City. Nine different scenarios are created based on variables of population and port development. Four key scenarios are selected by Cross Impact Analysis. At the end, it is found that in different scenarios, the priority of strategic alternatives will be different. When the future development grows slowly, we should choose conservative strategies, which have lower cost and could improve road traffic immediately. When it grows rapidly, we should choose the positive strategies to fit the future developments of city traffic.