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dc.contributor.author吳舜丞en_US
dc.contributor.authorShuen-cheng Wuen_US
dc.contributor.author張新立en_US
dc.contributor.authorDr. Hsin-Li Changen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-12T02:20:37Z-
dc.date.available2014-12-12T02:20:37Z-
dc.date.issued1998en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT870423010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11536/64267-
dc.description.abstract高速鐵路之規劃興建提供台灣西部運輸走廊一項快速且準確之新城際運具,也因其速度快且運量大之特性,將使台灣西部都會區間之運輸型態呈現不一樣之風貌。由於高速鐵路快速穿越台灣南北,旅行時間相對大量縮減,旅行者在參與城際運輸時具有相對較高之時間選擇彈性,高速鐵路之運量時間分佈型態將因此而明顯異於現有鐵公路與航空運輸時間,深究高速鐵路在日間不同時段所呈現之運量分佈情形,將有助於營運與排班策略之參考。本研究透過系統分析,從活動類型深入探討城際運輸旅行者之出發時間選擇偏好,繼而經由實驗設計與訪問調查獲取研究所需之資訊,並藉助整合技術之加總以推估高速鐵路旅次分佈之尖峰性。 本研究首先就現有城際運輸旅次特性內容,分析旅行者不同旅次活動目的、時間、日期及個人社經特性與時間選擇之關連性,並發展出發時間選擇之離散型機率模式,以作為總計運輸需求並分析需求尖離峰特性之依據。隨後透過問卷設計,得到個別旅行者在高鐵運輸情境下,參與城際運輸活動之可選擇出發時間區段,以及個人出發行為之傾向。在研究時間與調查經費之限制下,本研究採取既有城際運輸工具之型態轉移比例進行權重調整之總計方法,進行高鐵運輸需求分佈情形之預測。 調查結果顯示在旅行速度提升前提下,旅行者有更大的彈性空間選擇其旅行出發時間,高鐵旅行者偏好之出發時間明顯出現於用餐時段之前後。相對尖峰需求大致出現於上午九點到十一點間、午後兩點到四點、及晚間七點到九點。而本研究在個體選擇總計過程中,採取市場比例之方式進行推估,雖容易造成雙重近似之統計誤差,但該推估方法為本研究進行過程所探討之眾多方法中,現階段唯一可合理建立操作架構之模型。本研究從理念架構之建立、實證資料之收集,乃至模式操作均已略具雛型,期盼後續研究者可針對該主題之總計方法接續推動並校估整體預測模式之實際參數,以期得到高鐵運輸需求尖離峰分佈狀況之全貌。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractThe recently-proposed High Speed Rail system (HSR) is an important transportation project in Taiwan. Since HSR can provide the fast intercity transportation service, which would greatly change the whole transportation behavior and the life styles between metropolitans in the west area of Taiwan, the HSR issues have been widely and deeply discussed. This research aims to explore the peak demand characteristics of HSR, which involve the issues of time preference and time available to travelers. Based on discrete choice model, this study investigates the departure time choice of the individual travelers of HSR, by which the time preference of individual is obtained. The peak characteristics of the HSR in Taiwan are therefore recognized after gathering the time preference of individual by using market-share aggregation model. The contents of this study mainly include three parts, i.e. the discrete choice behavior analysis, activity-pattern analysis, and the aggregation model applications. This study provides the information of the number of riderships by different periods of time of a day, which may help operators for arranging the staff shifting and the service timetable.en_US
dc.language.isozh_TWen_US
dc.subject高速鐵路zh_TW
dc.subject尖峰zh_TW
dc.subject運輸需求zh_TW
dc.subjectHigh Speed Railwayen_US
dc.subjectPeaken_US
dc.subjectTransportation Demanden_US
dc.title高速鐵路運輸需求尖離峰特性之研究zh_TW
dc.titleThe Study of Exploring the Peak Characteristic for the High Speed Rail System in Taiwanen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.department運輸與物流管理學系zh_TW
Appears in Collections:Thesis