民間參與投資BOT交通建設之決策分析－相關開發機會之考量

Abstract

政府運用BOT模式(Build-Operate-Transfer, 興建-營運-移轉)，引進民間資源投資參與公共交通建設。由於公共交通建設除多具有投資規模大、成本支出項目多為不可逆性、回收期間長等多項特性之外，對於地方需求、公共工程之效能表現、地區發展等投資建設後之願景，通常存在著相當程度的不確定性。BOT模式不僅可以抒解政府資本門支出之財政壓力外，更希望借重民間之資金與營運能力，並以民間參與者以其管理能力來承擔計畫不確定性，於政府所規劃的投資範圍內，選擇其能力可有效經營之資產，提昇資源的使用效率，例如大眾運輸系統之參與者可選擇其所信賴與可以充分合作之車輛系統製作業者，選擇其所認同的附屬事業等相關投資策略，故該項BOT計畫之投資價值，應不只是政府於初步規劃中以現金流量折現法所呈現的結果，而是以政府的初步規劃內容為基礎，進一步考量民間參與自承擔公共建設不確定性所發揮的投資效益。 另一方面，由於影響交通建設投資風險的主要因素為交通服務需求量之不確定性，而交通服務需求量，與其所連接之地區環境發展計畫以及地方需求有密切關連。捷運系統、高速鐵路、以及快速道路等具有使用者付費特性之公共交通建設，必須與其所連接之地區環境發展計畫以及地方需求相互配合，才能於龐大的資本投入下，發揮公共工程投資效益，若投資時機未經細心規劃，無法與社會需求相互契合時，在評估期間內可能無法達到預估之投資效益，則極易造成龐大的資源錯用。 由於現行的BOT投資計畫於初步規劃階段的評估方法，乃是應用現金流量折現法之自償能力來加以評估分析。由於民間參與計畫，是以民間力量替代政府承擔風險，故於進行投資效益評估時，必須站在BOT模式民間參與者的立場，充分反映民間參與者所能享有與發揮的各項效益。除此之外，因為公、私部門之相關背景因素與決策條件有所不同，對於最適投資時機之規劃，亦可能產生差異，若以現行之自償能力分析，則是相當不易充分考量上述事項。 因此，本研究將探討「由於民間參與公共建設之投資機會特性，不同於以往的私部門投資，有意成為民間參與者之投資人，應以何種觀點與投資決策分析程序，評估投資機會價值與遴選最適投資時機」之問題。經由分析民間參與公共交通建設所能享有的投資效益來源，釐清民間參與者進行投資決策之相關議題（包含鉅額投資之不可逆性、公私部門面臨不同的資金機會成本、外部效益內部化措施該如何有效掌握、與最適投資時點之訂定等)，以民間參與者之立場，綜觀參與公共交通建設的投資機會，進行BOT投資計畫於初始階段之決策分析，即「評估該項BOT計畫，自民間觀點而言，是否值得參與？若是值得投資，何時是最佳時機？」故相關前置作業與交通建設進行步調之配合程度、法令上是否有所限制、甚或是牽扯至政治偏好等，將進一步造成投資效益之更加不確定。事實上，此不確定亦正是政府希望藉由執行BOT完成公共建設主因之一，民間參與者可運用其經營管理能力，於政府所規劃的投資範圍內，選擇其最適投資策略來承擔投資風險，進而發揮建設計畫不確定性中所隱含的投資價值，故運用實質選擇權方法(real option approach)，不僅符合上述需求，對於處理在需求高度不確定且預測不易進行時的投資決策分析與投資時機評估，能夠比目前的現金流量法為基礎的自償能力分析，提供更為周延的訊息，將有助於說明BOT計畫之或有價值等相關財務性特質，並有助於研擬細部設計時規劃方向之訂定，進而提昇財務計畫品質。 本研究並以「中正國際機場至台北捷運系統」為例，說明如何應用實質選擇權方法的不確定性分析技術，針對初步規劃中「財務性效益評估」的投資內容與範圍進行投資決策分析。因為該項BOT計畫於政府在初步規劃中所規範的投資範圍內，具有可供參與者自省其經營管理能力，選擇其所認同之最適路線、車輛系統與車站位置等投資策略之擬定，此如同擁有選擇權，能夠將承擔不確定性中所隱含的投資機會價值予以發揮。另一方面，運用選擇權評價技術進行BOT計畫投資決策分析之特點，最重要的是可以提供投資決策者於不同程度之不確定狀況下的決策空間。若是私部門之投資決策者對於本身之經營能力有信心或是看好未來的經營前景，且願意承擔較高之不確定性時，則可以利用較大之獲利能力指標變動率的標準差，描述較高不確定性時的可能投資獲利能力與最佳投資時機。另一方面，若是私部門不願承擔較高的不確定時，本模式亦可藉由較小之獲利能力指標變動率的標準差，分析投資者於不願承擔不確定性時之可能投資獲利能力與最佳投資時機。運用選擇權評價技術進行BOT計畫投資決策分析，應更能符合BOT模式利用私部門經營能力提昇公共建設效益之觀點，考量私部門對於自身經營能力之衡量，於不同的經營環境可能性下之投資效益結果與決策空間。

One of the main reasons for adopting the BOT model for the government is to incorporate private sector's capital, resources, and management skills to achieve maximal utility of transportation infrastructure development. Typical characteristics of transportation infrastructure projects include huge capital investment, long payback period, large irreversible capital expenditure and uncertain demand for the service, although it might be difficult for these governments to raise the huge funds needed for all projects. Alternatively, these governments may adopt the BOT model to implement the different infrastructure investment projects. The primary motivation for adopting BOT model is a wildspread belief that private sector's enterpreneurship is more efficient in building and operating infrastructure facilities. There are some decision-analysis issues for the BOT project from the private sector's viewpoint. Timing is one of other important issues for project investment. Since most infrastructure investment projects require massive irreversible cost, the importance of timing can not be underestimated. If the social economic benefits evoked from infrastructure project are not realized within expected assessment period, unnecessary huge opportunity cost caused by huge tied up resources might incur. Excessive delay in construction may prevent the realization of considerable net benefits, which might have resulted from more immediate investment. These considerations are particularly relevant to transportation infrastructures such as mass rapid transit (MRT), expressway and tunnel, since they are usually processed with irreversible capital investment and must get payback from predicted demand for service. The government usually employs discounted cash flow method to evaluate BOT project. However, the traditional discounted cash flow method might not be sufficient to evaluate the BOT project with complicated uncertainty and intensive capital characteristics. Since the private sector must implement the infrastructure project with private fund and simultaneously take the inherent project uncertainties, there must be enough incentive for the private sector. Besides, The private sector's capital cost for undertaken the project is usually different from the government's discount rate, since the risk bearing ability and the project evaluating viewpoints are different. How to evaluate the high uncertain BOT investment project properly from the private sector's viewpoint is an interesting research topic. The application of option theory could be employed as an analytical tool to evaluate investment projects. In the last decade, financial option theories have been applied in real-asset investment evaluation, giving rise to what has been called the real options literature, especially with regard to decision analysis of the nature of uncertainty and contingent investment opportunities. Uncertainty is an input into the real option analysis. The real option approach seems to provide a powerful tool for the assessment of BOT investment project because it provides ways to account for irreversibility of the capital and uncertainty of the future. The private sector may choose adequate asset through investment, after they analyzed the external uncertainty. There is the embedded value under uncertainty for the private sector to participate the BOT project. The CKS Airport-Taipei MRT investment project in Taiwan, is provided as a numerical example to demonstrate our approach. The MRT will function not only to provide transportation between Taipei City and CKS airport but also connect the go-between developing cities. The private sector may choose favorable train system, areas and positions of stations, joint development strategy, etc., after they analyze the external uncertainty. The project value is positively related to the success of the joint development plan. Both transportation infrastructure and joint development plan are inherited with high uncertainty, which should not be ignored. We will illustrate how the real option approach could be used to evaluate the BOT project value and make the decision analysis from private sector's viewpoint. If the private sector is confident with its own ability and future development of the BOT project, there is relatively larger embedded value under uncertainty, that is, the firm could evaluate the project option value with higher σ to analyze the investment opportunity is worth or not with the adequate investment timing, may be better to defer the project until the market develops maturely in the future. However, if the private sector evaluates the future development opportunity of the BOT project with a weak vision, with lower σ to analyze, the private sector may give up the opportunity, or convince government capital grant to the project.