台鐵營運安全風險之分析

Abstract

在歐洲，鐵路系統發展較為先進與完備之國家，均承認運輸活動具有安全風險，並對其風險進行量化分析與評估，以確保其風險水準是可以接受，而台鐵尚未對本身之營運安全風險進行分析與評估，因此本研究回顧風險等相關文獻，在確認其定義後，引用於台鐵營運安全分析，並利用台鐵民國86年~90年行車事故資料，建立其安全風險指標。 本研究將台鐵營運安全事故分為設施、設備、管理、其他四個肇因， 並將台鐵路線分類為西、東、及南迴等三條線，然後計算各肇因事故及各路線事故之風險值及風險貢獻度。最後再探討各肇因事故中影響風險之主要因素。 經本研究分析結果，台鐵營運安全風險指標值，在民國86~90年中，有逐年下降之趨勢，另外各年度各肇因之風險貢獻度如下：設施類在民國86~90年均在50%以上，然逐年降低，設備類之事故風險貢獻度民國86~88年均只占20%多，然逐年上升，管理類與其他類合占約20%，在此五年內有改善之趨勢，再者,各路線各年度之安全風險指標值，其分析結果顯示86~90年以西幹線最高，東幹線與南迴線互有高低，唯西幹線與南迴線有逐年降低之趨勢，東幹線並無明顯改善。三條路線各年度各肇因之風險貢獻度同前述之計算方式，可以看出86~90年西幹線與南迴線安全事故主因在於設施，其次為設備；東幹線之安全事故，設施及設備均為主要肇因。

In Europe, the country whose railway system developed more advanced and completed all admitting the transportation activity to be provided with safety risk, and taking it for quantification analyzing and evaluating in order to ensure its risk can be accepted. However, the T.R.A. has not taken its operation safety risk for analyzing and evaluating, so this research reviews the documents about risk and using it in analyzing the risk of T.R.A. operation after confirming its definition , and utilizing the accident data from 1997~2001 of T.R.A. to establish its safety risk index. This research separates the operation safety accidents of T.R.A. to “facility”、“equipment”、”management” and “other” four causes, and separates its routes to “west”、”east” and “south circle” three routes,then calculates risk value and risk contribute rate of accidents with different kinds of cause or route. Finally, we discuss the main factor which have an effect on risk. According to our study, the operation safety risk index of T.R.A. reduced from 1997~2001.Besides,the risk contribute rate of different cause is as below : “facility” was over 50% during 1997~2001, and “equipment” was only 20% during 1997 ~1999 ,but rose every year, ”manage” and “other” total were 20%, was improved during 1997~2001.Furthermore ,the analysis of safety risk value shows that “west route” was highest, “east route” and “south circle route” differed seldom, but “west route” and “south circle route” had a trend of reducing, “east route” didn’t improve obviously .As the same calculate method，the risk contribute rate of different cause and route shows that the main cause of “west route ‘s” and “south circle route’s” accident is “facility”, the next is ”equipment”；However, “facility” and ”equipment” are both the main cause of “east route’s” accident.