全球半導體產業之動態分析

Abstract

半導體產業結構歷經劇烈變化，自1950年代以來，全球半導體逐漸發展出上、中、下游完整的產業結構；1990年之後，半導體晶片的廣泛應用，造就資訊、通訊產業的興起，更使得全球經歷了前所未有的經濟成長，而產業內也由激烈的競爭演變為蓬勃的合作。本研究將半導體產業之發展歷程分成三階段:萌芽期、成長期、成熟期，從相關的經濟理論探討不同階段產業生態的現象與產業結構的變化。如下: (1) 由Stigler之經濟理論解釋半導體產業結構為何由萌芽期的垂直整合逐漸發展為成長期的上、中、下游垂直分工。 (2) 以蛛網理論探討半導體產業形成垂直分工結構後，上、中、下游各個次產業內的動態循環及其對產業結構的影響。 (3) 分析半導體產業進入成熟期後，上、中、下游緊密的供需關係將如何影響其間的互動，以及產業如何發展為垂直準整合的結構。 最後則嘗試建構一經濟模型，並進行模擬分析，以討論當上、下游廠商處於何種產業結構下，所產生的利潤誘因可能使上、下游產業由垂直分工發展為垂直準整合的結構。根據建構之模型，結合半導體次產業於不同之結構下，推論半導體產業未來的競合行為與發展。本研究預期未來市場上將可見代工業者與設計業者進行蓬勃的策略合作，產業將呈現價值鏈對價值鏈的競爭，形成明顯的垂直準整合結構。

Over the course of past five decades, the semiconductor industry has been regarded as one of the most strategically important industries. From 1960s, it has developed into a comprehensive industrial system with vertically integrated as well as specialized. Firms cover the whole spectrum of semiconductor processes including design, mask, fabrication, packaging and testing. While many scholars have explored the phenomenon by investigating related technological development and operational performance, this study has worked from a slightly different perspective. A dynamic framework is developed to examine the context of semiconductor industry, based on the evolution of its market structure. This thesis consists of four sections. To begin with, the research explores the rationale why the semiconductor industrial structure has shifted from vertical integration to vertical disintegration. Next, the notion of cobweb cycle is utilized to further investigate the manufacture-related sub-industry. Furthermore, the collaborative events between upstream and downstream firms would be summarized. Finally, this study posits a two-stage game model characterizing the cooperation between two adjacent industries. The Nash equilibrium derived from computer simulation suggests the two adjacent industries would be vertically quasi-integrated as they evolved into comparatively similar market structure, either oligopolistic or competitive.