台灣TFT-LCD產業未來發展策略之研究

Abstract

TFT-LCD 產業作為政府重點發展的兩兆雙星產業之一，歷經將近十年的時間，的確也成功地突破年營業額上兆的政策目標。只不過台灣的面板產業歷年來的總投資金額卻也超過一兆，突顯出此產業的一個重大的問題：利潤過低。然而亞洲鄰近國家地區如韓國、日本以及中國大陸的面板生產者並沒有創造出更高的經營利潤，可見這並不是台灣獨有的現象；相反地，各國的競相投資並未因極低的毛利而有所停滯。本研究嘗試以產業分析的方法剖析TFT-LCD產業為何能夠在毛利率如此低的情況下，卻還能夠吸引各國幾近沒有限度的投資，究竟TFT-LCD產業的春天在哪裡？ 台灣的面板廠自1998年中華映管引進三菱的技術開始，正式進入大尺寸面板的時代。九年以來面板產業歷經幾波景氣循環，以及數次的合併整合，如今已經可以大致看出各公司競爭力的高低。本研究也試圖為身為前二大的友達與奇美以及後段的中華映管、瀚宇彩晶、群創乃至元太、統寶擬出將來的競爭策略。在次世代面板廠的投資競賽當中，台灣、日本及韓國的抉擇已經進入了“囚犯理論”的階段，只可惜最後似乎還是沒有人能夠停止蓋廠。這是對有能力與國際競爭的友達、奇美而言；對其於小廠來說，本研究以微笑曲線簡單的變形便找出了明顯的生存之道。 中國大陸自2002年開始進入大尺寸面板的生產，除了上海廣電集團及北京的京東方集團之外，龍騰光電、天馬微電子等等公司也積極投入。本研究最後做成的結論是在TFT-LCD產業的競爭上，中國大陸若沒有台灣的協助，將使得大陸的液晶產業毫無競爭力。同樣地，台灣的液晶產業最後仍須考慮西進大陸，充分運用台灣得天獨厚的產業特殊地位，方可與日韓競爭。 另外，隨著石油能源價格的不斷高昇，太陽能電池的重要性又被提起。現行的電池型態多為厚膜（Bulk Si）且為wafer base（不透明）；如果現行的TFT-LCD廠能夠利用現有的產能，製造大面積、透明且能源轉換效率高的太陽能電池產品，則勢必為台灣乃至於世界上所有的TFT-LCD廠帶來另一波高潮。

TFT-LCD industry has been promoted by the government for about 10 years and has been listed in the key project “Two trillion and bi-Star”. Now the revenue has successfully hit 1 trillion NTD; however, the investment also reached 1 trillion NTD. This has raised an important phenomenon: extremely low profit. Why all the Asian countries keep on investing while they are not enjoying better profit? This study tries to analyze the situation and give an answer: where should this industry go? In 1998, along with CPT’s introducing the manufacturing technology from IDT (Mitsubishi Corp.) the era of making large area TFT-LCD in Taiwan starts. After 9 years running, the silicon cycle goes up and down several times; several companies are merged; now we can easily observe there forms two groups of fabs: AUo, CMO and others. For the leading 2 companies (AUo, CMO), the decision of making investment for next generations has fallen into a “prisoners dilemma” with other big ones in the other countries; for those smallers, this study uses the famous “smiling curve” from Dr. Stan Shih and a slight transform to realize the survival way for them. China started entering large area TFT-LCD manufacturing by setting SVA-NEC and BOE-Hydis in Shanghai and Beijing. There are still some more to come in the near future. This study gives a conclusion that “no China fabs can compete without the cooperation from Taiwan”; same as Taiwan, the industry finally has to consider going west otherwise the unique strength of Taiwan will be wasted and results in the situation that Taiwan falls no competition. Considering how to “push out” the surplus capacity from the old generations, solar cell is an emerging topic. The current solar cells are mostly made by wafer based bulk silicon which is limited in size and not transparent. Many TFT-LCD fabs are thinking about making big size, transparent and high efficiency solar cells with their existing production line. Some technical barriers have to be penetrated; once that day has come, it would be the second evolution of energy and all TFT-LCD fabs find their way of survival.