越太平洋航線貨櫃運量之影響因素探討

Abstract

航運產業受整體大環境影響甚鉅，景氣擴張時，各行業大鳴大放，貨櫃需求增加，反之，景氣低迷時亦降低了貨櫃需求，要維持營運的順暢以及獲利的穩定性，必須要能夠掌握貨櫃需求的變化方能隨之調整貨櫃供給。然而貨櫃航商除了仰賴政府及各研究機構所公布的經濟數據和第三方研究機構對未來的預測外，多半仰賴長時間在產業所累積的經驗和大型客戶提供的出貨量預報來做分析，並無較為客觀的理論支持。據此，本研究透過迴歸分析(Regression Analysis)探討本研究的四個變項對2009年至2012年的運量表現是否具影響力，並且利用2009年至2012年之航商裝載量及航商艙位數等各項資料，甫以經濟領先指標做為控制變數，透過潛在成長模型 (Latent Growth Modeling, LGM)探討航商競爭優勢並試圖分析造成運量趨勢不同之可能原因。 相較於亞洲地區以及歐洲市場而言，美國為經濟發展成熟之單一經濟體，市場狀況較單純，並且，航商與具有貨物控制權之客戶直接合作比例較其他市場高，故本研究鎖定美國為研究國家，並以提供亞洲出口、美國進口之貨櫃運送服務的航商，共二十四家 (TSA及非TSA航商皆納入)為研究對象。研究所需之各項數據則來自於美國經濟諮商會官方網站、Alphaliner資料庫以及Zepol公司。 本研究就運量及運量趨勢分別提出四個研究假設，分別是加入TSA、加入聯盟、高市佔率以及艙位投入百分比較高均對運量及運量趨勢有影響。基於本研究之研究結果，我們得到以下結論與建議： 1. 運量趨勢不只受到單一因素之影響。 2. 不盲目追求大型化船舶。 3. 不盲目追求裝載率。 4. 活用自身資源，展現差異化以維持競爭優勢。

Shipping Industry is affected by the whole economy which is similar with other industries. When the economy expanded, demand is increasing, vice versa. To run the business and maintain stability, container liners should know the change well. However, container liners have no clue about volume change except for relying on booking forecast from big retailers and economic data provided by third party such as research institute and the government. Thus, this paper uses Regression Analysis and Latent Growth Modeling to analyze the trend the volume may go in near future as well as dig out carriers’ competitive advantage and the reasons caused difference. The data that this paper uses is from Zepol Company, Alphaliner and The Conference Board and the duration is from year 2009 to year 2012. Transpacific market is much simpler compared with Asia and Europe market. Besides, carriers work more closely with cargo holder compared with other markets. Therefore, this paper focuses on container liners who import cargoes from Asia to United States, 24 carriers (including TSA member and non-TSA member) in total. Based on the research results, we have the following conclusion and suggestion: 1. Volume is not affected by one single factor. 2. Do not blindly pursue loading factor. Except for loading factor, revenue and margin are also important. 3. Do not blindly pursue mega-vessel phase in and high market share. 4. Show differentiation to keep competitive advantage.