标题: | 财务风险指标之信效度检验 Examining Reliability and Validity of Financial Risk Indicators |
作者: | 王宏义 Wang, Hung-Yi 丁承 Ding, Cherng 管理学院经营管理学程 |
关键字: | 财务风险指标;财务危机预警模型;验证性因素分析;效标关联效度;模型配适度;信度;效度;罗吉斯回归;Financial Risk Indicators;The Financial Early Warning Model;Confirmatory Factor Analysis;Criterion-related Validity;Model fit;Reliability;Validity;Logistic Regression |
公开日期: | 2013 |
摘要: | 在过去相关的文献中,财务危机预警模型的建构及其模型内财务风险指标的选用,皆以会计学理中的财务报表分析为依据,但对于所选用之财务风险指标,并未曾检验其信效度,因此本研究针对此部分,对建构财务危机预警模型中的财务风险指标,进行信效度之检验,以期能找出符合财务报表分析且具有信效度之财务风险指标,提供后续建构财务危机预警模型时使用。 本研究选用2008 ~ 2012年期间,台湾上市柜中25家发生过财务危机的企业及50家财务建全的企业为研究样本,以财务报表分析为基础,从既有的文献中,以5个构念选取了19项财务风险指标,使用验证型因素分析,来检验这些财务风险指标之信效度;并以是否发生财务危机的企业做为效标关联效度,采用罗吉斯回归来检验具有信效度之财务风险指标对企业是否发生财务危机的解释能力。 在最终的研究结果中,经验证型因素分析检验后,由12项通过信效度检验的财务风险指标,以4个构念建构出的财务危机预警模型,其模型的整体归类正确率可达84%。 As a pre-reference, the construction of the financial early warning model and the selection of its involved financial risk indicators are both based on financial statements analysis. Since there is no validation of selected financial risk indicators, this research is aimed to verify the reliability and validity of financial risk indicators in the financial early warning model, which will lead us to find out financial risk indicators with reliability and validity corresponding to the theory of accounting principles and contribute to set up the succeeding the financial early warning model. Based on the theory of accounting principles, the selected samples consist of 25 financial crisis and 50 financial robust Taiwan listed companies from 2008 to 2012. 19 financial indicators belonging to 5 constructions are analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis to test the reliability and validity. Criterion-related validity lies in whether the subjective companies had encountered financial crisis and the logistic regression is utilized to examine the relationship between financial crisis and financial risk indicators with reliability and validity. The total exact assigning rate is 84% in ultimate results derived from financial risk forecast model with 4 constructions examined by 12 financial risk indicators and examined by CFA. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT070163723 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/74687 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |