財務風險指標之信效度檢驗

Abstract

在過去相關的文獻中，財務危機預警模型的建構及其模型內財務風險指標的選用，皆以會計學理中的財務報表分析為依據，但對於所選用之財務風險指標，並未曾檢驗其信效度，因此本研究針對此部分，對建構財務危機預警模型中的財務風險指標，進行信效度之檢驗，以期能找出符合財務報表分析且具有信效度之財務風險指標，提供後續建構財務危機預警模型時使用。 本研究選用2008 ~ 2012年期間，台灣上市櫃中25家發生過財務危機的企業及50家財務建全的企業為研究樣本，以財務報表分析為基礎，從既有的文獻中，以5個構念選取了19項財務風險指標，使用驗證型因素分析，來檢驗這些財務風險指標之信效度；並以是否發生財務危機的企業做為效標關聯效度，採用羅吉斯迴歸來檢驗具有信效度之財務風險指標對企業是否發生財務危機的解釋能力。 在最終的研究結果中，經驗證型因素分析檢驗後，由12項通過信效度檢驗的財務風險指標，以4個構念建構出的財務危機預警模型，其模型的整體歸類正確率可達84%。

As a pre-reference, the construction of the financial early warning model and the selection of its involved financial risk indicators are both based on financial statements analysis. Since there is no validation of selected financial risk indicators, this research is aimed to verify the reliability and validity of financial risk indicators in the financial early warning model, which will lead us to find out financial risk indicators with reliability and validity corresponding to the theory of accounting principles and contribute to set up the succeeding the financial early warning model. Based on the theory of accounting principles, the selected samples consist of 25 financial crisis and 50 financial robust Taiwan listed companies from 2008 to 2012. 19 financial indicators belonging to 5 constructions are analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis to test the reliability and validity. Criterion-related validity lies in whether the subjective companies had encountered financial crisis and the logistic regression is utilized to examine the relationship between financial crisis and financial risk indicators with reliability and validity. The total exact assigning rate is 84% in ultimate results derived from financial risk forecast model with 4 constructions examined by 12 financial risk indicators and examined by CFA.