IMD國家競爭力排名方法之改進與視覺化模型

Abstract

IMD出版之國家競爭力年鑑素來被認定為最具公信力的研究報告之一。然而IMD採用過多指標，又給予相同權重，乃可議之處，另者，沒有全球性的趨勢分析亦為其遺憾；本研究提出一個Estimation Model，試圖找出少數的關鍵指標及其適當權重，將可使評估國家競爭力的過程更為簡便，也可找出影響一國競爭力的重要指標。我們以2001到2003年的資料實驗，並以該實驗結果預測2004年的國家排名，結果與IMD 2004所公佈之排名相當近似，証實此一模式具高可靠度。此外，本研究中也提出一個Visualization Model，在3D球面上觀察國家之間的相似性與群聚性。結果發現，國家排名由高往低，在球面上呈現螺旋狀上升，可解釋一國由落後到先進的發展過程。

IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook is one of the well-known reports about the world economic competitiveness. However, IMD yearbook has the following disadvantages. First of all, too many criteria are used. Second, all criteria are regarded equal important in scoring a nation’s competitiveness. Thirdly, there’s no further pattern displaying for global competitiveness. This study proposes a new scoring model, the “Estimation Model”, to estimate the national competitiveness. The Estimation Model works well in finding out significant criteria and predicating next year’s ranks. On top of that, a Visualization Model is developed to display nations on the surface of a 3D ball. The results reveal a finding of the “spiral evolvement phenomenon” when nations improving themselves.