中國零售業通路所有權之實證研究

Abstract

Tellis and Crawford’s (1981) 的產品演化週期（PEC）模型指出了三個驅動演化的因子，分別為：管理創新、市場動態、政府中介。這種方法通常著重在檢驗零售商如何在零售或批發產業適應經濟能力，但是過去很少探討在零售業的通路所有權改變下提供有解釋力的描述研究。因此本研究目的如下：1. 探討影響中國大陸零售業在各種不同通路所有權下銷售額的驅動力與因素。 2. 探討中國大陸零售業在各種不同通路所有權下銷售額是否受到區域差異的影響。

本研究是採用2003出版的中國城市統計年鑑、中國市場統計年鑑、中國統計年鑑，資料為實際2002年中國大陸31個省份和278個城市。研究方法利用主成分分析、因素分析和迴歸分析，將不同通路所有權下的銷售額影響驅動力分為九大因素作實證分析。本研究的結果為：1. 所有權結構、開放程度、人口（因素1）、人口成長（因素2）和人口密度（因素3）三者在不同通路所有權下的銷售額扮演最顯著的角色，這三個因素屬於政府方面，所以也可得知中國大陸零售業結構是最受到政府因素的影響。2. 其次為區域差異會影響中國大陸零售業在各種不同通路所有權下銷售額，其中以沿海地區最為顯著。

Tellis and Crawford’s (1981) Product Evolution Cycle (PEC) Model represents three forces as the basis for production evolution: managerial creativity, market dynamics, and government mediation. The classical economic approach usually focuses on the performance of retailers by examining how retail format or the whole retail industry adapts to the context of economic force but very few study has provided a comprehensive description on channel distribution ownership change in retailing. So the purposes of this paper are as follows: 1. Discuss the determinants of retailing sales under the different ownership in China. 2. Discuss whether the determinants of retailing sales under the different ownership in China considering regional difference.

Secondary data of this study utilizes cross sectional data from China City Statistical Yearbooks, China Market Statistical Yearbooks and China Statistical Yearbooks in 2003. These data are gathered the metropolis in 31 provinces and 278 cities in overall China in 2002. Principal Component Analysis and Regression Analysis are used to discuss this model. In this study, we found that among nine factors: Structure of Ownership, Openness, and Population (Factor 1), Population Grow (Factor 2) and Population Density (Factor 3) play the most significant roles to all retail ownership structures. The conclusion is that regional inequality and several crucial factors may influence different channel distribution ownership sales in China retailing