在轉型經濟下，影響中國大陸零售業銷售的因素之實證研究:以區域差異的觀點

Abstract

在轉型經濟下，中國大陸的零售業的發展逐漸步入市場化，且發展迅速。而在全球化的浪潮下，中國大陸加入了WTO，零售業是受到衝擊較大的產業；再加上中國大陸各區域實質上是異質市場，其制度環境、經濟發展、基礎建設……等因素均差異甚大。也因此有以下的研究目的。如下: 1.探討影響中國大陸零售業之銷售額的主要趨動力與因素。 2.探討『區域差異』對是否對中國大陸零售業之銷售額有顯著影響。 3.那些因素會影響中國大陸『不同區域』的零售業之銷售額。

本文以中國大陸262個地級以上城市為研究樣本，共有測度:政府政策、外資潛力、管理效能與服務品質、交通運輸與建設、市場規模深度與需求、經濟潛力、技術進步、都市化程度等八個構念共14個的自變數，依變數為中國大陸零售業銷售額，利用複迴歸與多變量迴歸的研究方法做實證分析。而本研究的實證研究結果為:

1.影響中國大陸零售業之銷售額的主要決定因素: 政府支出/GDP、外商實際投資額、平均零售業員工工資、每萬人擁有公共汽電車、國民所得、總人口數、人口密度、居住在市區人口、非農業人口/總人口。 2.研究結果亦發現區域差異(東部、中部、西部)確實影響中國大陸零售業銷售與發展甚大。 3.(1)對中國大陸「東部地區」零售業銷售有顯著影響的變數為: 政府支出/GDP、平均零售業員工工資、每萬人擁有公共汽電車、鋪 建道路面積、國民所得、總人口數、人口密度、非農業人口/總人 口。 (2)對中國大陸「中部地區」零售業銷售有顯著影響的變數為: 外商實際投資額、平均零售業員工工資、平均每人零售家店數、 GDP成長率、百貨公司銷售佔總零售額的百分比。 (3)對中國大陸「中部地區」零售業銷售有顯著影響的變數為: 外商實際投資額、每家零售店平均員工人數、平均每人零售家店 數、鋪建道路面積、國民所得、總人口數、百貨公司銷售佔總零售 額的百分比、居住在市區人口、非農業人口/總人口。

關鍵字: 中國大陸市場、零售業、中國大陸零售業、 區域經濟發展理論、轉型經濟

In transition economy, the development of retailing industry in Mainland China gradually goes to the way in the direction of marketization. And in the wave of globalization, Mainland China joined World Trade Organization; the impact on the retailing industry is very great. Besides, regional differences, such as the institutional environment, the development of economy and the basic construction, in Mainland China are very huge. Therefore, this research objectives are as follows:

1.Discussing the determinants of the retail sales in retailing industry in Mainland China. 2.Discussing whether regional differences significantly influence the retail sales in Mainland China. 3.Discussing which factors affect retail sales in different regions in Mainland China.

The research sample of this study is based on 262 cities in Mainland China, there are fourteen independent variables, and the dependent variable is the retail sales of Mainland China retailing industry. The simple regression model and multiple regression model are used to test the null hypothesis.

The results show: 1. The determinants of the retail sales in Mainland China retailing industry are as follows: Governmental expenditure/ GDP、foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment, public cars per ten thousand population, income, total population, population density, urban population, non-agricultural population/total population. 2. Regional differences affect retail sales and development of Mainland China retailing industry. 3. (1) The significant determinants of the retail sales of the eastern China are as follows: governmental expenditure/ GDP, average annual wage in retail industry, public cars per ten thousand population, square measure of the road、income, total population, population density, non-agricultural population / total population (2) The significant determinants of the retail sales of the middle China are as follows: foreign direct investment, average annual wage in retail industry, number of stores per capita, growth rate of GDP, the percentage of retail sales in department stores. (3) The significant determinants of the retail sales of the western China are as follows: foreign direct investment, number of employee per retail store, number of stores per capita, square measure of the road, income, total population, the percentage of retail sales in department stores, urban population, non-agricultural population / total population.

Key Words: Mainland China Market、Retailing Industry、Retailing Industry in Mainland China、Theory of Regional Economic Development、Transition Economy