台灣網通產業同質與異質整合之比較分析－資料包絡分析法實證

Abstract

本研究將網通產業區分為有線網路與無線網路兩類。以資料包絡分析法（Data Envelopment Analysis：DEA)手法進行效率分析，先討論產業中同質整合的部分，再討論有線與無線間產業異質整合的部分，分別以 (1)個別產業最佳化後再進行異業結合、(2)直接進行異業結合、(3)有線產業先整合後再與無線產業整合、(4) 無線產業先整合後再與有線產業整合等四種不同的異質整合方式探討。分析異質整合的可能影響，以提供台灣地區最適的網通產業整合組合為最終目標。 實證研究後發現： (1) 根據DEA之差額變數分析，網通產業不適用一般的效率改善，因此以選CCR結合多階段評選概念取被購併對象，以個體效率提昇最多搭配整體效率提昇的量的來決定提出購併的廠商，重此步驟直到整體產業效率皆為1為止，依此可以客觀提出實務上最合適的整合組合。 (2) 被整合之廠商尋找整合對象時，僅會考量高效的DMU。此外營收超過百億的一線大廠，只能跟高效且同為一線的大廠合併，而雖然二線廠也能在夾縫中求生存，但不具備有整合非高效一線大廠的能力，這也印證了網通產業是「大者恆大」的生態。一線大廠相對的二線廠商或三線廠商的整合對象較多，因此二線廠商或許能藉由整合其他二線廠商積極強化體質，使自己早日晉升為一線大廠，能讓自己從困境解套。 (3) 經由DEA的分析可看出，無線通訊產業整體經營績效普遍比有線通訊產業來的高，因此顯示目前有線網路公司必須盡快提升經營績效，可以經濟規模的整合，或是與無線產業進行互補式整合，而無線產業也可藉由有線網路公司的客戶群與量產能力來提升總營收早日達到一線大廠的目標。 (4) 異質整合時以「兩產業同時混合方式」所餘之公司數較多，在市場上會有較多的競爭者；合併次數以「同時混合」較多，但最多合併的公司數為5家，較「個別最佳化再整合」的最大合併家數7家為合理且可行；而「”有線整合後”加”無線整合前”之混合整合」的產業結構較傾向於原始產業分別經營。

In this research we divided telecommunication networks industry into network industry and wireless industry and did efficiency analysis by Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA). We discussed homo-intergration. Then we want to find the impact of heter-intergration by discussing four heter-intergration forms: (1)Find the optimal combination in each part first. Then combinate and find overall optimal combination. (2)Combinate all company and find overall optimal combination. (3) Find the optimal combination in network industry. Then combinate with company in anothers part and find overall optimal combination. (4) Find the optimal combination in wireless industry. Then combinate with company in anothers part and find overall optimal combination. The goal of research is providing the most suitable combination of telecommunication networks industry in Taiwan. We find some conclusions from case. (1) In slack analysis from DEA we find that improvement of input or output is not workable. So we used CCR model and multi-frontier efficiency curves method to selection object of intergrated company. Then we used “maximum increased efficiency of intergrated company” and “maximum average efficiency of industry” to selection object of intergrating company. We repeated this two steps until all of company’s efficiency is 1. This combination is optimal combination. (2) We find the object of intergrating company is efficiency units. If the revenue of intergrated company is more than ten billion, the revenue of intergrating company is more than ten billion. And the revenue of intergrating company is less than ten billion can’t combinate with the company that have more than ten billion revenue. We provide “bigger you are, the more powerful you will be”. Because the company that have more than ten billion revenue have more choice, the company that have less than ten billion revenue use intergration to improve himself. (3) From result of DEA the efficiency of wireless industry is better than network industry. We suggest company intergrated with heter-industry for improvement technology level or scale (4) In intergration form of combinate all company and find overall optimal combination there are more competitive company than other form. In intergration form of combinate optimal combination in each part it is not reasonable and workable because the number of intergrated company in new company is more than other form.