新產品開發專案投資組合決策系統之構建

Abstract

在現今許多組織中，專案投資組合篩選與管理都被認為是很重要的活動，而這之中也包含了許多複雜的流程與決策情境。在以台灣電子產業為對象的NPD專案投資組合中，為了決策何項被提出的提案該被採用以達成系統目標，許多準則必須被收集與考慮,而目標包含投資組合可以符合組織的策略要求、平衡性和期望獲利的最大化。因為不確定性、不斷更新的資訊、不斷浮現的商機與專案之間的相依性為投資組合決策流程中常見的特色，所以本論文中針對候選提案考量期望在獲利、資源和技術相依性下，發展出一套專案決策模式，且此系統在候選新提案與現行專案集合中，考量資源限制條件下求解出所定義目標函數最大化的NPD專案投資組合。因此，此投資組合決策系統可以協助管理者進行專案的篩選並達成資源的規畫以及分配。

Project portfolio selection for management is a crucial activity in many organizations, and it is concerned with a complex process that involves many decision-making situations. In order to decide which of the proposed NPD projects should be adopted in the project portfolio in Taiwan electronics industry, numerous criteria must be collected and considered for the sake of system objective. They include to link to strategy, balance in the portfolio, and maximize the expected value of the portfolio. Because the portfolio decision process is characterized by uncertain and changing information, dynamic opportunities, and interdependence among projects. In this paper, project decision model is developed that identifies the expected benefit, resource and technical interdependencies among candidate projects. And the system is to develop a portfolio of new and existing project to maximize the objective function, subject to a set of resource constraints. Therefore, this system can assist managers to select projects for portfolio decision, and complete the resource planning and allocation.