中國大陸城市永續發展績效評估

Abstract

本研究是應用資料包絡分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)，建立二組對照組，一組為考慮環境因素，一組為不考慮環境因素的城市績效模型。所有變數皆以西元1998年GDP平減指數轉換成實質變數。觀察資料為1998-2003年，中國44個城市之相關資料。在本研究DEA模型當中，有兩個產出項(各城市實質年度所得與總人口)以及八個投入項(全部從業人員、實際利用外資金額、地方財政預算內支出、全年用電總量、每平方公里二氧化硫排放量、工業廢水排放達標率、環境噪音達標率、建成區綠化覆蓋率)。除此之外，DEA產生了每個城市每年之環境變數目標值，以及每種環境變數之可改善目標率。主要實證發現如下： 1. 中國之大城市如北京上海等，其競爭力皆名列前茅，但加入環境變數後，其效率值反而落後競爭力後段之城市。 2. 探討環境變數之改善目標率，知曉實際值與最適值之差異程度，觀察城市效率之優劣。發現：達到環境變數最適目標之城市逐漸增多，意味中國近年環保意識的抬頭，促使考量環境變數下，城市環境效率之改善。 3. 分析各年度城市之人口目標值，以了解環境變數影響城市人口容納之程度。因都市人口分佈不均，在考量環境因素下，對城市人口產生無效率。 4. 在考慮環境變數下：東區生產力優於中區，而兩者環境污染皆嚴重，故Mann-Whitny U 檢定顯示效率排序有顯著差異的；而西區生產力雖差，但環境污染程度最輕微，故與東區中區兩兩比較，未產生顯著差異。

We apply the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to compute city efficiency scores with and without environmental factors considered. Observations include forty-four cities in China during the 1998-2003 periods. There are two ouputs (local government income, population) and eight inputs (employment population, foreign investment, local government expenditure, city electricity consumption, sulfur dioxide emissions quantity per square kilometer, industrial wastewater passing rate, environmental noise passing rate,and built-up areas afforestation coverage) in our DEA models. Moreover, DEA generates the target environmental factors for each region in cities in each year, from which the efficient environmental variable-saving target ratios of regions in cities can be computed. All nominal variables are transformed into real variables at the 1998 price level by GDP deflators. Our major findings are as follows: 1. Efficiency scores of big cites such as Beijing and Shanghai will get down after considering environmental factors. 2. Efficiency scores of cities in China were generally improing during the analysis period. 3. Given the environmental factors, the largest cities could not bear any more population inflow; however, middle- and small-sized cities sill could absorb more poluplation inflow. 4. The Mann-Whitny U test shows that the east cities have significantly higher efficiency scores than the central cities and the central cities have significantly higher efficiency scores than the west cities.