以技術預測方法探討三維影像技術需求與發展趨勢—以GIS應用為例

Abstract

由於科技的進步與經濟之繁榮，使得全球已經邁入一個全新的數位化世代，其中三維影像技術逐漸扮演重要的角色。過去，我們所習慣接觸的數位媒體，大抵以二維的影像記錄或呈現，但是，我們所熟悉的生活環境，卻是不折不扣的三維世界。何以至今三維影像相關產品仍無法大量普及，究其原因，技術問題應該是主要的關鍵。因此，本研究擬以三維影像技術為研究目標，技術範圍包括三維影像之擷取、顯示與互動，分別探討其未來的需求、潛在的關鍵技術與可能的發展趨勢。研究方法以MRI預測法為基礎，應用情境則限制在地理資訊系統的領域。未來，當實體的空間不斷被數位化之後，許多創新的應用服務可望逐步地出現，預料我們週遭的生活也會跟著發生顯著的變化。因此，本研究分別從娛樂、購物、交通、居住與環境監測等不同角度的需求面為出發點，構想出十項可能的產品概念，然後結合問卷調查與專家深入訪談，逐項推敲其功能需求、關鍵技術需求、未來實現的可能性與市場規模等。最後，經由專家意見彙整與統計的結果，歸納出前項三維影像技術可能的演進趨勢，並建議可行的技術發展方向。

With the surging progress of technology and rapid growth of economy, the world is entering an entire new era. Of all the technologies in this digital world, 3D image technologies are expected to play a critical role. When most of the physical environments where we live are digitized, we believe some of our daily life could be changed dramatically. In this thesis, we address the technology forecasting of 3D image capturing, display and interaction as the research goal. The main issue is to explore their future needs, potential key technologies and possible development tendency. The forecasting skill is based on Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI) method, and the application scenario is limited in GIS related area. Firstly, we try to devise ten possible concept makings for the future requirements as we live in a digital world. Secondly, questionnaire and expert’s interview are proposed to identify what the needed functionalities and key technologies will be. The following step is to proceed with feasibility study and evaluate potential market in the long run. After collecting the opinion of experts and analyzing the investigation results, we finally conclude a promising evolution trend and recommend the feasible development direction for 3D image technologies.