氣候變遷下考量農業用水調配之乾旱供水風險分析

Abstract

近年來區域水文時空變化之不確定性及未來全球氣候變遷對於降雨時空分布的影響，預期區域公共用水與農業用水的缺水風險將不斷升高。故宜及早以管理風險及降低風險衝擊的理念，進行區域水資源供應風險管理機制的規劃評估，並提出適當的公共用水與農業用水缺水風險回應計畫。 有鑑於此，本計畫針對石門水庫現況水資源供應系統，考量水文不確定的風險，建置其相應的公共用水與農業用水缺水風險分析模型。 
藉由第一年的計畫結果得到石門集水區之合成流量，此合成流量為水資源調配分析之基礎，可作為第二年進行氣候變遷下農業用水衝擊分析之準備。第二年計畫為建立石門水庫水資源調配模式，並研擬適合之乾旱應變規則，以分析石門水庫受氣候變遷影響之供水風險。

The water shortage risk of public and agriculture demands is expected to increase due to uncertain hydraulic condition and climate change. Therefore this study focuses on response plan during drought periods considering public and agriculture demands via risk analysis. This is a two-year study and the developed methodology is applied to the system of Shihmen Reservoir. First year project has been done. In the first year, synthesis flow was prepared using the data of the Shihmen catchment. The synthesis flow will be used as input data for the models developed in the second year. In the second year, a risk analysis model and a water supply model will be developed for water supply risk analysis. This risk analysis will consider the uncertain hydraulic condition and the climate change. Based on the result of the analysis, this study will provide a response plan for drought periods considering public and agriculture demands.