多世代產品的創新擴散概念模型

Abstract

1969年的Bass model將消費者劃分為創新者和模仿者，成功的捕捉到新產品在市場上的擴散行為；Bass更指出只要擁有連續三期以上的銷售資料，Bass model就能估計新產品的尖峰銷售量及其發生的時間。Norton和Bass更在1987年針對當時的高科技產品發展多世代產品的擴散模型(Substitution Bass Model)，企圖模擬新舊世代產品間的擴散關係及替代關係。

然而，過去所定義的新產品是指市場上從未見過的創新應用，例如第一台電視、第一部電腦、第一支手機..等等。但在現代的時空環境背景之下，市場上鮮少有真正符合定義的新產品，取而代之的是所謂的「次世代產品」。 因此，本研究的貢獻之一，即是以Bass model的創新擴散為基礎，建立新的模型以捕捉次世代產品佔有舊世代市場的行為，並預測舊世代產品的尖峰銷售量及其發生的時間。此外，本文也說明過去Bass Model的預測曲線擁有極高準確度的原因。另一方面，本文融合Bass Model的預測方法、Tellis的起飛點 (1997)以及本文的新模型，建立一套方法幫助經理人預測新舊世代產品在未來不同時間的銷售量。

本研究指出了新舊科技間的替代行為，而未來的研究也可應用本文的架構，進而探討不同品牌間的關係，將新產品領域更進一步拓展。

Bass model captured the diffusion behavior of new products in the market successfully in 1969 by dividing consumers into innovators and imitators. Bass indicated that Bass model can estimate sales peak and the timing of sales peak if they get the sales data during three continuing periods. In 1987, Norton and Bass developed a multi-generations model (Substitution Bass Model) to simulate the diffusion behavior and substitution behavior among multi-generations.

However, what they defined new products are those innovative applications which never exist in the market, such as the first TV、the first computer、the first cell phone. Nowadays, there are rarely real new products but new generations. Consequently, one of our contributions is creating a new model based on Bass model, capturing the behavior that how new generations occupy old markets and predicting sales peak and the timing of it of old generation. In addition, this article explains the reason of the high accuracy of Bass model. On the other hand, this article merges the estimating method of Bass model, Tellis’s takeoff (1997) and our new model, constructing a way for managers to forecast the sales amount of generations in the future.

This article indicates the substitution behavior among generations. Future research can also apply our framework to discuss the relationship between different brands, expanding the new product field.