貨櫃航運運費影響因素與預測之研究

Abstract

海運市場近似完全競爭市場而受市場的供給及需求影響甚大，又海運運輸需求為衍生性需求，主要由國際貿易貨物需求量引申而來，因此全球或區域性的經濟發展及國際貿易需求量將對海運需求量，甚而對海運運價產生直接的影響。然而，海運價格的不確定性大大地增加了相關業者的營運風險，因此，若能瞭解、掌握運價之影響因素與未來趨勢，將能對海運業者的經營決策提供重要的參考資訊，有效降低其營運的風險。

本研究主要即在探討定期海運運費影響因素與預測。首先，我們就分析影響海運運費之因素作一敘述性的探討，隨後，針對船舶與貨運供需因素對運費之影響作為出發點，以近年來海運市場供需狀況及亞洲與北歐區域國家經濟發展為基礎，探討上述因素對於區段間定期海運運費的影響情形進行實證分析。研究分為兩階段動態時間序列模型，第一階段探討各國經濟變化對於貨運需求的影響；第二階段探討艙位利用率對於運費收入的影響並分為東、西向作討論。實證結果發現，西向之工業國組織成員國及亞洲國家GDP變化對運輸需求量呈現顯著影響，且西向的利用率及歷史運費對運費收入呈現顯著影響。因此建議貨櫃航商可依區間國家的經濟變化作為運量及運費趨勢預測的指標，以降低經營風險。

The shipping market was seriously impacted by demand and supply. Demand of shipping market was extended from international trade. Consequently, global economic development or regional economic development and international trade affect shipping both market demand and ocean freight directly. However the uncertainty of ocean freight seriously risked business management. However, shipping industry nowadays still faces relatively high risks, coming mainly from the volatile freight rates. As such, knowing and grasping the influencing factors and effectively forecast the volatility of freight rates will greatly enhance the profitability of the market participants.

This study explores in depth on factors and prediction on container freight rates. Descriptive discussions about the influencing factor of freight rates in shipping market. Afterwards, based on the factor of supply – demand relationships, we use the market supply – demand date and the economical development of Far East and North Europe countries for parameter to investigate and analyzes quantitatively the interactions among regional freight rates and those parameters contributing to the volatility of freight rates. This study will establish two step dynamic time series model. First step is interaction for regional economical development and cargo demand. Second step is interaction for vessel utilization and freight revenue. Two steps cover west and east bound. The empirical results show that for west bound, cargo demand is significantly affected by the variation of GDP for major advanced economies and Asian countries. And freight revenue is significantly affected by utilization and history freight revenue. To knock down management risk, we suggest taking these parameters for index to predict the trend of cargo demand and freight revenue.