應用模糊認知圖探討影響電子商務24小時到貨系統因素間關係

Abstract

台灣在物流領域中，與其他國家較不同的營運方式，除了便利超商取貨之外，宅配到家的商業服務模式已蔚為風行。剛開始提供鞋子、衣服等商品；近年來，隨著線上購物模式的成熟發展，貨品的種類已延伸到日常生活用品。為了因應線上購買日常生活用品的需求，訂購的物品能不能在24小時內宅配到家，則成為值得探討的議題。有鑑於此，本研究希冀找出影響24小時到貨服務的重要因素，希望能提供給其他想發展24小時到貨服務的公司參考使用。回顧其他相關文獻得知，先前的研究在探討這類議題時，會使用最佳化模式或是分析網路程序法(ANP)來求解；本研究有別於其他研究的是找出影響24小時內到貨的重要因素，再透過敏感度模式（SM）及模糊認知圖（FCM）來做探索性分析，探討各個因素間相互影響的關係。研究結果顯示，24小時購物訂單數量、達到24小時配達能力以及具備穩定的庫存量是關鍵參數。 敏感度模式與模糊認知圖為兩種易於探討因素間關係的模式，能在短時間有效率的收集專家意見，將各領域專家的意見做結合，以表達出整個系統變數間的相互影響關係。藉由專家提出對關鍵因素的影響下，找出改善24小時購物服務的關鍵因素，以利於其他想發展24小時到貨服務業者往後經營之參考。

In Taiwan, the shopping on-line service in an electronic store and picking up goods afterwards at home could be quite common and attractive these days, although the relationship between identified attributes may often be deemed contradicting to one another. Therefore, this study intends to focus on the approaches for improving 24-hour delivery performance by proposing appropriate Sensitivity Model (SM) and the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). According to the SM, we can see variables like “Order of 24-hour delivery service”, “Ability to achieve 24-hour delivery”, and “The resilience of safety stock” are critical to the system. Whereas, FCM is basically a cognitive map, within which, the relations between the elements (concepts) of a mental landscape can be employed to compute and estimate the impact strength for these elements. In summary, SM and FCM can be adopted for systematic studies both as the instruction tool and the research tool as well. Then, the top management of PChome can have the option to exercise control for the concepts they are interested in and take into account the impact from simulation output. The findings from this study can be expected as references for future studies to improve the service for 24-hour delivery.