國內房地產的漲跌趨勢與住宅政策之研究

Abstract

摘要 ECFA簽訂前後，部份區域、地段的房價漲幅以倍數成長。政府既怕房價過高造成通膨，也擔心房市泡沫化而影響稍微復甦的經濟，而祭出如升息、選擇性管制等措施，企圖壓抑到房市的追價意願。因此，國內房地產業在簽署「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」後的走勢値得深思探討。 本文主要針對兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）簽訂後，對於臺灣房地產未來的發展影響進行探討。儘管國內眾多學者、房地產業者、名嘴及媒體等所持樂觀或悲觀的看法異常分歧，但台灣在金融海嘯的衝擊後，經濟逐漸復甦以來，房價因為ECFA議題不斷被炒高乃是不爭的事實；不過放眼全台，除某些特定的區域、地段漲勢過猛外，其餘地區的房市無論是住宅或商用性需求的房子，其實都沒有達到房市景氣復甦，免強只是回到金融海嘯前的水準而已。 房屋市場自99年起大量推案，尤其北市及新北市數個地區房價屢破新高，無論新、中古屋或預售屋更是飆漲令百姓無所適從，房價已成為十大民怨之首。府也做了多項遏止房市炒做的動作，但房價截至目前為止依然持續漲不停，這也證明政府在政策干預房市，並無達到預期的效果。要平抑房價，政府應首重區域的均衡發展，加速著守在都會區做幅射性的往外發展其交通建設(如捷運)、公共設施開發，並輔以更優惠的房貸等財務支持，讓經濟弱勢者或年輕人，仍可在都會外圍找到經濟上足以負擔的房子。並以透明的房屋資訊，疏導購屋者以合理的價格，買到理想的房子。

ABSTRACT

The housing price in some area of Taiwan has been drastically increased about the signification of Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Fearing of either resulting in inflation by the booming of real estate market or the slowing-down of economic recovery if the crack-down of the market bubble should occur, the government attempts to suppress people’s blind pursuit in the real estate market by stemming speculative measures such as raising the interest rates, and selective monitoring. It is therefore worthwhile exploring the trends in the real estate market of Taiwan after ECFA.

This thesis intends to discuss the future development of the real estate market in Taiwan after ECFA. Despite the diverged opinions of scholars, real estate developers, pundits and media, the housing price has in fact been pushing up on the issue of ECFA. Except for a certain area, however, the overall real estate market in Taiwan has not been fully recovered since the worldwide financial crisis,.

The record-breaking price tags of real estate in Taipei city and New Taipei City has just emerged in 2009. And the ever-lasting growing of the housing prices, regardless of pre-sale, new, or second-hand houses, has becoming the number one public complaint out of the top ten. In response to this situation, the government did try to deflate the sails of Taiwan's run-away real estate market, but seemingly in vain so far. To effectively brake the rising speed of housing prices, government should seek for measures, such as a balanced development between Southern and Northern Taiwan, accelerating the projects of infrastructures such as the outward radiant transportation net from metropolis (such as MRT) and public facilities, and offering better deals of mortgage loan to the young or disadvantaged for houses around urban area with affordable prices. Among others, to allow for a more transparent market information to the public is indeed the most important and effective strategy.