高速鐵路對臺灣交通可及性的影響

Abstract

臺灣高鐵在民國96年通車以來，對臺灣本島整體的城際運輸影響甚鉅，由於快速便捷的特性導致整個國內的城際運輸市場的結構有相當大的轉變。臺灣高鐵通車不過數年，過去的研究多半著重於高速鐵路對其它城際運具的影響以及高速鐵路的營運策略等，較少探討交通可及性變化的議題，故本研究乃藉由社會經濟及城際旅運特性等資料之收集分析，研析高鐵對各縣市所帶來的影響。 本研究主要是經由回顧文獻中對於可及性的相關研究，研提本研究適用之交通可及性指標，即採用重力模式，以各區就業人口為吸引變數，旅行時間為阻抗變數，人口數與旅次數分別為區內及城際旅行時間之加權值，估計各區交通可及性指標，並利用無母數檢定確認高鐵通車前後，對於交通可及性之增益。另根據都市城際運輸系統服務，利用集群分析，探討不同類別都市之可及性特徵。最後利用居住人口、產業人口、土地使用及可及性等指標變數建立可及性與產業關聯模式，以探討可及性與各項社經變數的關係。 經以臺灣本島17個分區，高速鐵路、台鐵、國道客運、私人小汽車共4項城際運具城際起訖旅次，及各區社會經濟特性計算交通可及性指標結果發現，以南臺北可及性最高、北臺北居次、其後依序為高雄市、臺中市，這些都市也都是各區域的中心都市。高鐵通車後，整體的交通可及性皆有提升，達36%以上；其中衛星城市的交通可及性增益更是明顯，如苗栗、南投、彰化等之可及性增益，皆達40%以上。但以相對可及性來看，最大值（南臺北0.0997）約為最小值（臺東0.0113）14倍，顯示各地可及性落差還是相當大。此外，根據本研究所建立之關聯模式顯示，前一年期交通可及性的提升對於地區居住人口確有正向的影響。

From 2007, Taiwan High Speed Railway (THSR) has been run for several years. THSR has taken a huge impact on the whole transportation market because it is more convenient and faster than the other inter-city transportation modes. From the literature review, we could know that most of the studies on high speed railway were the impacts on other transportation modes and the management policies on THSR, and seldom look into the measurement and change of the traffic accessibility. Therefore the goal of this study focuses to discuss the impact on each region from THSR. Based on literature review, this study proposed a moderate traffic accessibility index with gravity model and using the Employed Residence and the travel time to be the valuables, and the trips and population of each district to be the rating of travel time of the inter-city and intra-city . From social-economic development model we could know that traffic accessibility is related to population and employment in industry and commerce. So from the covariance to find out the moderate transportation index first. Secondly, used nonparametric method to test the addition of transportation accessibility after high-speed railway running. And, used cluster analysis to group the district by the existing transportation modes in each city to find out what is the key factor to different transportation accessibility besides high-speed railway. Finally, use the population, Employment Population, land use and traffic accessibility to establish the relative model to discuss the relationship between the traffic accessibility and social economic variables. The result shows that the most high accessibility is in south of Taipei and then north of Taipei, Kaohsiung city, Taichung city. However these cities are the center of the each region. Moreover the whole of accessibility gain is over than 28%, and some satellite counties are in better accessibility gain. Like Miaoli County, Nantou County, Changhua County, the accessibility gains of these countries are more than 40%. But the relative accessibility shows that the largest accessibility is south of Taipei (0.0997) and the smallest is Taitung County (0.0113), in other words, it means the difference of accessibility in each district is huge. Besides, according the relative model, the promotion of traffic accessibility in the past year will take the population in.