以心理妥協效果探討跨世代新產品上市的銷售影響

Abstract

機海戰術是目前台灣科技廠商希望滿足消費者多樣化的需求，藉此期望擴大產品市占率的方法之一，然而龐大的產品群造成產品的生命週期已非獨立存在，而是受到其他產品之間的競爭而使銷售有所消長。因此，本研究將單一品牌( B公司)所推出不同規格之MP3音樂播放器，切為三個世代的產品線，藉由羅吉斯回歸分為兩階段來探討自身產品在市場上每一世代的發展情形及產品線更可能產生互相廝殺的情況。

在第一階段的研究結果發現，消費者對於三個不同世代所著重的產品特徵有些微不同，而在公司具有突破性的技術來改善產品性能時，銷售額會有非常顯著的提升。第二階段的研究發現，由於技術進步太快的影響，受到時間擠壓的世代二產品成為過渡時期的商品，而其垂直影響他代產品的幅度也有所不同。在產品面臨世代交替之際，妥協效果碰上科技大幅度進步時，妥協效果不一定存在，意即消費者不一定選擇中間選項，而有可能受到科技的吸引而購買新推出的產品。

本研究結果希望提供科技公司在管理產品群的一些建議，才能在產品水平延伸及垂直發展而面臨產品世代銷售競爭時，穩固自家產品的銷售量。

To meet consumers’ diversified needs and expect to expand product market share, most Taiwan’s technology companies use intensive product line extensions at present. However, numerous product groups make the product not independent in the product life cycle, but interactive. The product competition leads to growth and decline of sales. Therefore, this research takes different specifications of the MP3 music player from a single brand (Company B) and divides MP3 into three generations of product lines. By means of binary logistic regression model, we divide it into two stages to explore their own products development in different generations and competition across generations. In the first stage, we find that consumers in three generations focus on product features little differently. Sales would rise significantly when the company improves their product performances with competence-destroying techniques. In the second stage, we discover that because of the rapid technology advancement, products squeezed by time in generation two would be products of transition. In addition, products in generation two vertically influence products in other generations with different extent. At the time of products alternation of generations, the compromise effect may not exist under the condition of substantial progress of technology, which means consumers do not necessarily choose the middle option. Conversely, they may be attracted by the new technology and then purchase the new product. Finally, the results of this study provide some recommendations for technology companies to manage their product groups so as to stabilize sales volume of products when they face a spatio-temporal pattern of new product development.