中運量捷運系統之成本與效益分析之研究

Abstract

本文之路線，分兩個方案進行，作為中運量捷運系統之成本與效益分析，在分析時為近於合理之條件，本文以國內、國外資料並用。不論成本、效益之現值均以民國七十年之價值為基礎年。中運量捷運系統自規劃開始至設計，施工完成，開始營運以六年時間計算，其效益以20年計，其分析結果如下： 1.第一方案：信義副都心至木柵，全長9.6公里，共設7站，初期營運旅次以72000人/日計，則每公里之建造成本為4.06億台幣，營運成本每公里1798萬元/年。所求得之益本比為，在貼現率18%時為1.095，貼現率14%時1.415，貼現率10%1.886。投資報酬率為18.9%。 2.第二方案：信義副都心至公館，全長5.92公里，共設5站，初期營運旅次52000人/日計，則每公里之建造成本為3.91億，營運成本每公里1845萬元/年。所求得之益本比為，在貼現率18%時為0.763，貼現率14%時1.059，貼現率10%時1.490。投資報酬率為14.7%。 就以上兩個方案都已達到世界銀行貸款之最低要求之12%，由此可知中運量捷運系統是一值得投資之運量系統。

Two plans are suggested here for the projected Group Rapid Transit system in Taipei metropolis. Both domestic and foreign data are used in analyzing the cost and Benefit of the treansportation system. The values of cost and Benefitty of the transit system are based on the real valluse of the New Tanwan Dollars in the year of 1981. It is expected to take 6 years for the initial planning, design and whole construction work of the transit system, the Benefit of which is for 20 years. 1)First plan: Seven stops will be set up along the 9.6 Kilometer transit system from the center of Hsinyi to Mucha Based on the initial transportation capacity of 72,000 passangers/per day, the construction cost will be NT$406 million/per km, and the annual operation cost will be NT$1.789 million/per km. Thus the Benefit/cost ratio will be 1.095 at a 18% discount rate, 1.415 at a 14% discount rate, or 1.886 at a 10% discount rate. The return on investment will be rated at 18.9%. 2)Second plan: Five stops will be set up along the 5.92 km line from the center of Hsinvi project to kung kuan. Based on the initial operation capacity of 52,000 passangers/per day, the construction cost will be NT$391 million/per km, the annuql operation cost will be NT$18.45 million/per km. Thus the Benefit/cost ration will be 0.763 at an 18% discount rate, 1.059 at a 14% discount rate, or 1.490 at a 10% discount rate. The return on investment will be rated at 14.7%. Either of the two plans reaches the minimum requirement of 12% rate of return on investment set by the world Bank for credit loans.