在未確定性需求下的廠商理論

Abstract

Recently, many researchers have focused on the firm's behavior regarding input, output, and financial decisions under demand uncertainty. But their conclusions differ somewhat, especially for the capital structure.Again, most of the earlier studies discussed the input, output and financial decisions separately, despite the fact that they are closely interrelated. Thus, in this research, we set up an integrated analytic model, then examine the firm's decision behavior, completely establishing the theory of the firm. In the first part of this research the analyses of the firm's real decisions are based on the integrated model involving input and output decisions. In thses analyses, the results of previous researches are verified, while drawing further conclusions. For example, the more aversion toward risk a firm has, the less imput it will invest and the less output it will produce. An increase in the marginal risk causes the risk7 averse firm to reduce its inputs and its outputs, but it cannot affect the risk7 neutral firm. Other things being equal, the labor7 capital ratio of the risk7 averse firm will utilize more variable cost in production than the risk7 neutral firm. This paper also discusses the impact of labor shortages on the firm's decisions. If the labor supply is limited, then the risk7 neutral firm will reduce its capital investment, assuming the production technique remains unchanged. However, no explicit conclusions can be drawn for the risk7 averse firm. In the early studies of financial theory, researchers rarely considered the attitude of a firm toward risk, though most firms explicitly consider riks in their analysis of capital investment. Thus, this research takes into account the firm's attitude toward risk under the interaction of real and financial decisions. Using our analytic model, we can obtain similar results to those obtained by models which concentrated solely on real decisions. In financial theory, we obtain a somewhat different result from the M-M theory; that is , the firm's leverage may be small in the absence of taxes for both the risk7 averse and risk7 neutral firms, hence the firm's optimal capital is unaffected. The imposition of a corporate tax causes a firm to reduce its input and output while increasing its leverage. An optimal leverage exists and is inversely related to its capital investment. However, the risk7 averse firm's leverage and the risk7 neutral firm's leverage may not be different, regardless of whether or not there is a corporate tax. 在未確定性需求下的廠商決策，如產出決策、投入決策與財務決策等等，近年來，受 到許多學者的重視與研究。但有些論點並不一致。再者，產出決策與投入決策之間， 實質決策與財務決策之間具有密切的相關，但早期的研究者卻對它們分開探討。因此 ，本研究首先建立整合性的分析模式，再據此以分析廠商的決策行為，建立較為完整 的廠商理論。 首先建立了整合投入與產出的分析模式，分析了廠商在實質面的決策行為。在此分析 中，不但早期的學者在投入與產出決策方面的結論均可推論出來之外，還到了進一步 的結果，如廠商驅避風險程度越大，則在投入量及產出量的滅少幅度也越大；邊際風 險的增加使得風險驅避廠商的投入量及產出減少，但對風險中立廠商沒有影響。風險 驅避廠商比風險中立廠商使用了較大的勞力─資本比例及較大比例的變動成本。本研 究還進一步分析勞力短缺所帶來的影響，在生產技術不變的條件下，勞力短缺會使得 風險中立廠商減少資本投資。但對風險驅避廠商來說，卻無定論。 研究財務決策及在實質決策與財務決策相互作用下廠商決策的學者，鮮少考慮到廠商 面對風險態度對決策的影響。因而本研究除了利用投入與產出之整合模式來建立及簡 化質實決策與財務決策相互作用下的分析模式之外，還在分析模式中考慮了廠商面對 風險之態度。在實質面方面所得之結論與單獨考慮實質決策時所得到的結論相似。在 資本結論方面，如不考慮公司稅，則得到了跟M-M 的槓桿無閒理論及傳統的理論均有 所不同的結論；即不論廠商面對風險態度為何，均以任意低負債比率為宜。此時，廠 商的負債比述不會影響到廠商的最佳投資額。公司稅的課徵會使得兩類型的廠商均減 少投入量及產出量，而增加負債比率。此時，最佳負債比率存在且與最佳投資額成員 相關。不論如何，風險驅避廠商與風險中立廠商的負債比率卻無多大差異。