由台灣矽產業結構探討台灣砷化鎵產業發展趨勢

Abstract

隨著無線通訊產業的興起，現階段台灣行動通訊手機產業正走向有自主研發能力的ODM，也逐漸對手機零組件的採用有「建議權」，這些產業生態的改變，對台灣砷化鎵產業的投資發展有正面的助益。目前，台灣砷化鎵產業上、中、下游之垂直分工已漸趨完整，其發展模式與架構，猶如台灣矽產業過去十餘年之發展模式與架構，台灣砷化鎵產業是否能藉由矽產業成功發展之模式與經驗，開創台灣行動通訊手機產業的新契機，是值得我們深入研究探討與期待。 有鑒於台灣砷化鎵產業上、中、下游發展結構與矽產業相似，因此本研究設計選擇以技術預測之類比法（Analogy）為主要研究架構。蒐集台灣矽產業發展相關資料，以及產業關鍵成功因素，同時蒐集台灣砷化鎵產業資料，進行台灣砷化鎵和矽產業結構以及各項構面之比較，歸納出台灣砷化鎵產業的關鍵成功因素，再透過專家深入訪談，瞭解台灣砷化鎵產業在各項關鍵成功因素發展狀況，預測台灣砷化鎵產業可能的發展趨勢，以利廠商對未來發展趨勢進行規劃，以及做適當的資源配置，並提供政府相關單位擬訂國家政策時之參考。

Following the rise of the wireless communications industry, Taiwan’s mobile phone industry is in the present stage moving towards becoming an ODM (original design manufacturer) with independent R&D ability. This industry is also gradually gaining “suggestion making rights” about what mobile phone components are chosen for specific models. These changes in this industry’s functioning will benefit Taiwan’s GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry, helping with both investment and development. The present trend in this industry is the gradual completion of the vertical division of labor among up-, mid-, and downstream firms. In its mode of development and industrial structure, this industry resembles Taiwan’s silicon industry just over a decade ago. The question which now faces us is: can the successful development model and experience of the silicon industry be used to help the mobile phone industry achieve a new miracle? There are great expectations surrounding this question, and it deserves in depth research and investigation. In light of the resemblance noted above, for our research design we have chosen the following as our main research frame: forecasting the future of technology industries based on analogies with past industries—this can be called the “technology forecasting analogy method.” We gathered data relevant to Taiwan’s silicon industry’s development and to its main factors of success. At the same time, we collected data relevant to Taiwan’s GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry. We proceeded by making comparisons between the silicon and GaAs (gallium arsenide) industries in terms of industrial structure and various other dimensional factors. From this comparison, we summed up the key factors of success for the GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry. Through in depth expert interviews, we came to understand the state of development of Taiwan’s GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry relative to those key factors of success. This understanding allowed us to predict potential development trends: this is knowledge that can help firms perform future development planning and appropriate resource layout. Our results also have reference value for related governmental units when they draft national policy.