以技術預測方法來探討數位相機的趨勢

Abstract

台灣數位相機產業從2000年以來，在產值與產量都一直維持兩位數以上的成長，並且在產量上佔全球的30%以上，而接下來應該如何走，才能繼續維持此榮景，本文藉著技術預測的方法，找出未來數位相機產業發展的趨勢供產業參考；透過對數位相機產業的分析，以及日本相機手機市場的實例研究，可以發現手機相機的趨勢，似乎愈來愈清晰，透過SRI情境預測的方法，模擬出可能情境，及其可能的機會與威脅，提出因應策略，本研究的結論是包含來自相機手機及個人助理處理器(PDA)、平板電腦(Tablet PC)及筆記型電腦等行動裝置影像需求，已然成型，並且將成為帶動數據通訊的最大動力來源，以日本的J-Phone為例，就成功的利用影像需求，創造了傲人的成長與用戶貢獻度。

DSC industry of Taiwan has experienced 2 digits annual growth rate of volume and turnover since year 2000. Taiwan DSC annual output is over 30% of global output. What is the next step for the industry to keep its momentum? We would like to predict the trends of digital camera industry with the techniques of technology forecasting. And we hope our finding can benefit Taiwan digital camera industry. Through the analysis of digital camera industry & Janapness camera phone market, we can find the emergence of camera phone business. Using SRI Scenario Analysis procedures, we will build up possbile what-if scenarios, and come up the strategies to react with each what-if scenario’s business chances and threats. We believe the trend; which is the cameras for mobile devices（camera phone, PDA, Tablet PC, notebook PC and etc）, is there. And the trend will drive the boost of data communication. Take J-Phone’s as example, camera phone creates its remarkable user subscription rate, and stimulates its ARPU (average return per user).