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dc.contributor.author蘇健群en_US
dc.contributor.authorSu, Chien-Chunen_US
dc.contributor.author黃玉霖en_US
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Yu-Linen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-12T02:37:54Z-
dc.date.available2014-12-12T02:37:54Z-
dc.date.issued2013en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT070051234en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11536/73377-
dc.description.abstract摘要 在各個專案生命週期中,各階段皆存在各種不確定性及風險因子,進而造成各分項作業完成工期及總工期之負面影響,而風險值用於實獲值管理的觀念也趨近成熟,本研究主旨將以拔靴法、Delta-Normal法建立之工期風險值模型(改善)以及實獲時程管理的方法,再結合目前實務上用來評估損失風險的理論概念和模型,以時程變動率綜合工期風險值(SAR)與實獲值方法(EVM)預測工期風險值並針對實際案例-龍井太陽能光電廠的實際工期差異與實際剩餘完工工期,做相關差異之比較分析、驗證與討論。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractAbstract In the entire life cycle of the project, there are many uncertainties and risks, which bring the negative impacts to each individual work and entire project in the schedule. The concept of Value At Risk(VAR) in Earned Value Management(EVM)becomes mature. Thus,in this study,we improve the model of Schedule at Risk(SAR) by bootstrap,Delta Normal method and Earned Schedule(ES).Besides, the proposed method combines the concept, theory and model which is used to assess the loss of the VAR in practice.We will use the volatility of schedule ,SAR and EVM to predict the value at risk of the schedule and do the relevant differences comparative analysis, verification, discussion and improvement in the case: Longjing solar power plant.en_US
dc.language.isozh_TWen_US
dc.subject實獲值管理zh_TW
dc.subject實獲時程zh_TW
dc.subject風險值zh_TW
dc.subject拔靴法zh_TW
dc.subject變異數-共變異數法zh_TW
dc.subject時程變動率zh_TW
dc.subject預測完工工期zh_TW
dc.subjectEarned Value Managementen_US
dc.subjectEarned Scheduleen_US
dc.subjectValue at Risken_US
dc.subjectbootstrapen_US
dc.subjectDelta-Normal methoden_US
dc.subjectThe volatility of scheduleen_US
dc.subjectTime estimate at completeen_US
dc.title風險值於實獲值管理應用-工期風險值模型實證、改善zh_TW
dc.titleApplication of Value-at-Risk Techniques in Earned Value Management - Improving the Schedule-at-Risk modelen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.department土木工程系所zh_TW
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