風險值於實獲值管理之應用-預算風險值模型實證、改善

Abstract

專案在執行的過程中，每個階段皆存在著許多風險因子，每個風險因子都關係著專案的成功與否，故要能在追求專案績效的同時，也能監控專案在未來可能面臨的風險，勢必要有一個良好的管理工具，而實獲值管理系統被認定為專案管理領域裡最好的工具之一，其結合風險值所發展出來的預算風險值，能彌補在實獲值管理系統在風險評估上較不精確的部份，並提供專案管理者作為決策參考的依據。

本研究以實際案例對預算風險值模型進行實證，針對模型不足之處進行檢討及補強，並將其所量化的風險，作為工程緊急預備金之參考。

During the process of project management, every section have the inside risk, and it related to successful of the project. It is necessary to create a new management tool that can be use in the performance report and monitor the risk of every project. The Earned Value Management System is the one of the best tool in the project management, which can combine with the Value-at-Risk, and come up with a new model which is called Budget-at-Risk, it can supplement the risk information that Earned Value Management can't do and give the suggestion to the project manager.

This research takes the real case to empirical analysis the Budget-at-Risk model, to review and strengthen the model. The model can numerical the risk and given the consult of contingency reserve.